Friday, August 8, 2014

Yesterday's follow-through rally was modest but encouraging, since it exceeded an important 'external' peak, refreshing the bullish energy of the intraday charts. Traders should notice that the rally also generated an A-B impulse leg that could lend itself to a camouflage-style long entry.  There's no point 'C' low to the pattern yet, but night owls should watch for one to develop, since it may yield a precise signal for this vehicle's liftoff from the launching pad.  It would be quite bullish if a rally settles above the 1325.00 midpoint pivot, since that would indicate more upside to 1368.90 over the near term.

Mid-evening Thursday, the futures were sagging beneath the 1906.75 midpoint support shown, implying they are likely to fall to its D sibling target at 1875.50. Since a short trade from curent levels has 30 points of profit potential, night owls should consider it well worth any effort expended getting aboard. To reduce the entry risk, I'll suggest zooming down to the 10-minute chart for your entry signal, then using a downtrending abc patttern on the 1-minute when the signal is tripped.  Since a collapse is not ordained, you should be open-minded to the possibility of a rally, however unexpected. It would be warning bears to take cover -- and bulls to go long -- on a print exceeding 1915.50 on the 10-minute chart. ______ UPDATE (10:12 p.m.): Just noticed the 1893.50 target of a lesser bearish pattern, so be prepared for a bounce there if you're already short. Scalpers can bottom-fish with a stop-loss at 1893.50, but if the order fills you'll be on your own, since I'm out for the evening.  The futures are coming down pretty hard, suggesting that something in particular is troubling traders.