Monday, August 25, 2014

LNKD – LinkedIn Corp. (Last:226.48)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

One might have assumed the fake-out bar on the opening bell had become too predictable to rely on for our Friday Jackpot bets. But look at how LNKD opened on Friday: with a move opposite the direction the stock took for the remainder of the day. This sort of thing occurs routinely mainly because the professionals charged with taking the other side of market orders that come in on the opening bell are given a great deal of leeway in setting their price. This means that if the market makers are swamped by public orders to sell-at-the-market, they can drop their bids to fire-sale levels to handle the onslaught. On Friday, the result was that out-of-the-money call options that could have been purchased for as little as 0.10 traded later in the day for more than 30 times that. There were no reports in the chat room of subscriber having done the trade, but I am calling it to your attention nonetheless so that you are aware of the kind of opportunities that are available on Friday's, when weekly options are mere hours from expiration. Keep that in mind next Friday, when we'll want to focus once again on the lunatic stocks that can swing BIG intraday.

Whirled Peas Driving Sunday Night Stampede?

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

DaBoyz were acting pretty cocky Sunday night, pumping index futures full of hot air as though whirled peas had broken out (or some such). The E-Mini S&Ps were up the equivalent of 100 Dow points around 1:00 a.m. EDT but looked primed to move even higher over the very near term. For a precise target that can be used by night owls to get long, or by anyone to get short when it is reached, check out my update for the E-Mini.

SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:24.13)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Silver Wheaton showed encouraging strength compared to Comex futures, but the strain of maintaining altitude as physical declined has finally taken its toll. Now the stock looks primed to fall to the 23.71 Hidden Pivot support shown. I'll suggest preparing for this: 1) first, by getting short on the next break below p=24.78; and then, 2) bottom-fishing at D by buying four November 22 calls at the 24 strike for perhaps 1.10. (You'll need to monitor the bid/asked in real time to get a better feel for the right price.)  You should stop yourself out of the puts if they trade for 0.15 less than you paid for them. ______ UPDATE (Sep 4, 11:07 p.m.): Thursday's low fell just 12 cents from the 23.71 target first broached a while back, so you should be preparing to act as suggested above. _______ UPDATE (Sep 7, 10:37 p.m.): The stock bounced 40 cents off a 23.76 low, but I'll wait till I hear from subscribers who got long before I establish a tracking position.

SIU14 – September Silver (Last:19.395)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Silver's ratcheting descent has come to seem almost inevitable from one day to the next. We should assume it will continue to the 19.165 target, at least, or to 19.100 if any lower. If you are inclined to short each lurching step, I'd suggest using a mechanical stop-loss on entry. This implies shorting the tops of minor, upward corrections, and then using a stop-loss equal to a third of what you  stand to gain if the futures continue lower to the target.

Only Fools Still Hang on Yellen’s Every Word

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

Who would have believed when the Great Financial Crisis was winding down five years ago that the feather merchants, unrepentant as always and eager to make up for lost time, would be right back at it, erecting an even bigger, shakier house of cards?  A recent Wall Street Journal headline offers a hint of their dubious success so far: “With Rates Low, Firms Near Borrowing Record.”  Fresh evidence that epic malinvestment is more robust than ever would be scary enough by itself. But to make matters worse, Wall Street and the news media, if not the American public, continue to treat the architects of the next crash with fawning deference and respect, hanging on Janet Yellen’s every word as though the patronizing blather she spews each week to “manage our expectations” were somehow of great import. Same Old Story To underscore the point, the stock market erupted into the usual, embarrassing histrionics last Friday when the Fed’s latest double-speak hit the tape. This, despite the fact that the Open Market Committee’s most recent minutes did little more than reaffirm that the Masters of the Universe plan only to perpetuate the status quo. Interest rates will have to be raised at some point , we were reminded yet again, but the economy is not quite strong enough for it yet. Give the Fed and its shiftless, stupid lackeys in the news media credit for holding our attention with such drivel for as long as they have.  It is a tricky balancing act, to be sure, since it requires the banksters to aggressively promote the lie that the economy is just a few widgets shy of booming even though a majority of Americans polled on the subject believe the Great Recession never ended.  The reason this stark paradox can persist is not

ESU14 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:1995.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Although there are alternative patterns related to the long-term bull market, the one shown yields the closest Hidden Pivot resistance of significance: 2053.00. We can use it as a minimum upside projection for the rally cycle begun two weeks ago from nearly a hundred points lower, but we should be cautious about assuming it is certain or even likely to be reached. Indeed, any index climbing in record territory will be particularly vulnerable to a precipitous decline from out-of-the-blue.  Traders should hold a bullish bias nonetheless and stay focused on perhaps the 5-minute chart when looking for opportunities.  As an example, on the five-minute chart, locate these coordinates: a=1991.25 at 10:35 a.m. EDT; b=1981.50; c=1990.00. Despite the fact that Friday's Fed-driven histrionics made quite a mess, you can see than the sharp a-b impulse leg eventually gave way to a follow-through leg that could have been bought at the midpoint pivot with a very tight stop loss.  Paradoxically, it is when fear and greed are at their craziest that we find some of the clearest and most tradable Hidden Pivot patterns. ________ UPDATE (1:01 a.m.):  DaBoyz are pretty ambitious for a Sunday night, goosing the futures the equivalent of 100 Dow points so far. For bulls and bears alike, I can offer a very usable, minor Hidden Pivot target well shy of the big picture one at 2053.00 identified above. It lies at 2008.00 -- 13 points above current levels -- and can be found on the 60-minute chart using these coordinates: A=1890.25 on 8/8/; B= 1961.00 on 8/15; and C= 1937.25 on 8/15._______  UPDATE (August 26, 11:33 a.m.): No change in my outlook or advice. Keep in mind that the futures can take as long as they darned well please to reach our modest target, since they simply mark