Tuesday, September 2, 2014

I am providing tracking guidance for a round lot whose cost basis has been reduced by profit taking to 33.85.  Since there's upside potential to 49.54 (see inset), we'll have time to augment our position ahead of any big move.  The last time we attempted to do so was by bottom-fishing a midpoint support that got taken out. If we try this again, it will be with the expectation that corrective abc patterns do not exceed their respective midpoint supports.  Moreover, if GDXJ is 'bulling up', we should start to see rallies exceed their D targets. _______ UPDATE (Sep 9, 8:04 p.m.): The stock took a Whoopee Cushion bounce from a low that was 16 cents above a target I flagged in the chat room. The fact that the downside target wasn't quite reached is mildly bullish, but GDXJ will now need to exceed last Friday's 39.59 peak to 'actualize' the bullish potential thereof. _______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 1:03 a.m.): The stock (ETF) continues to screw the pooch with feints to within an inch of the 36.60 target flagged a while back.  Since our low cost-basis has provided a comfy profit cushion, I was prepared to ride this position into oblivion rather than bail out.  This is mainly because managing the risk of bullish positions in this vehicle has been far more trouble than it's worth. Instead, I'll suggest doing another covered write if there's a decent rally this week. Stay tuned to the chat room for real-time guidance._______ UPDATE (Sep 18, 1:25 a.m.): Interest in this vehicle seems to have evaporated.  Since no one acknowledged my query in the chat room about the covered write, I'll assume a mediocre fill of 1.15 for a Sep 26th 38 call shorted at some point during the day. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22,

A 2008.00 target first broached here an eon ago remains viable and was recently affirmed by the creation of a coincident target of lesser degree (see inset).  All of the nervous, herky-jerky tedium has made it nearly impossible to get long ahead of the move, and I am no longer very keen on getting short there either, since there are a couple of other, lesser Hidden Pivot resistances to confuse things. Even so, an easy move past so clear a target as the one shown would indicate the bull is waxing. If we're going to nail the next move, it will best be done in the chat room via some timely crowd-sourcing.

Earlier, I identified a correction target at 1257.80 that remains viable as a place to try tightly stopped bottom-fishing if demand for gold is soft in the days ahead. However, I also want to give you a bigger, bullish picture (see inset) in case the futures  move higher this week without deferring to our bid.  The buy signal would be tripped on a print at 1299.90, and I would encourage you to look for 'camouflage' entry opportunities on the lesser charts if that should happen. Thereafter, my minimum upside target would be 1326.30, the midpoint p pivot; and thereafter, assuming the midpoint is decisively breached, the 1379.20 D target shown. This is all quite speculative, since, unless we are focused on the very lesser charts round-the-clock, we cannot know exactly when the futures are taking off. _______ UPDATE (Sep 2, 10:54 p.m.): I've adjusted the rally target and key price points to reflect the marginally lower point 'C' created on the weekly chart by yesterday's selloff.  At present, the 1316.00 midpoint pivot is the number to beat.

I’m starting to warm once again to gold. Like many of you, I never gave up on it, I just grew too bored to care. With the bear market in bullion about to enter its fourth year, who could be blamed for losing interest?  Gold has looked so punk for so long that every time it rallies sharply, I get that nagging feeling, as you probably do, that we’re about to get sandbagged for the umpteenth time.  So why the change of heart? All credit to Richard “Doc” Postma, a friend and regular guest panelist with me on interviews with the (Al ) Korelin Economic Report. Doc, a physician by training, is also an astute investor and market timer. A patient sort as well, he is that rare bird who can watch and wait for months or even years while exceptional opportunities slowly take shape. I hasten to add that on more than one occasion, he has been a crucial step ahead of me in calling some important price swings in gold. Naturally, that got my attention. He now thinks gold and silver are about to take off -- as soon as late September or early October.  The very idea of it caused me to look with fresh eyes at my charts for corroborating signs.  The inescapable conclusion is that Doc is onto something. The evidence is there for anyone who cares to look. For one, bullion continues to hit marginal new lows, but without breaking down.  Rallies have been fleeting, followed by slumps that continue to wear down even gold’s most loyal followers. Most telling of all, mining shares have shown increasing reluctance to give ground on days when demand for physical is weak. Signs of Bottoming Although the meaning of these signs when taken together seems clear to