An alert chat-room denizen spotted the target shown, and it's a jim-dandy. Pivoteers will notice that the point 'A' low seems to be positioned in the middle of nowhere. In fact, it is at 244, the low of the 1987 Crash. The remaining two coordinates are so clear as to leave little doubt about the importance of the resulting 2028.44 Hidden Pivot target. So far, the S&Ps have gotten as high as 2011.17 -- close enough for us to infer that a MAJOR top may already be in. If so, we are covered via DIA puts that I suggested buying and which are still attractive (see tout for details). As I noted in the chat room, it is inconceivable to me that the stock market will NOT make a top of at least tradable importance very near the target, so you should position accordingly. ______ UPDATE (Sep 9, 7:56 p.m.): There are more exchange vehicles tracking the S&P 500 that one can count, but depending on which you use, the Hidden Pivot target given above could be as low as 2018.04. If so, that would mean that the so-far high at 2011.77 came even closer to fulfilling a price objective that had been 27 years in coming. Our trading bias should therefore be bearish, with wider-than-usual-stops for any short positions taken. See today's E-Mini S&P tout if you want a precise way to gauge the bear's strength at any point in time. _______ UPDATE (September 15, 12:43 a.m. EDT): So far, so good -- even if progress to the downside has been labored. The INX appears bound for the 1982.23 target of (on the hourly chart) A=2007.51 (9/5): B=1982.99 (9/10); C=1997.65 (9/11). The current correction up to (and slightly past) the 1985.29 midpoint pivot is therefore short-able if via camouflage.
Tuesday, September 9, 2014
A ‘Jackpot Bet’ for Tuesday
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksI usually save Jackpot Bets for Friday, but there's a juicy rally target in Google that looks too appealing to pass up. The goal of these trades is to buy out-of-the-money puts or calls priced as longshot bets, but to do so precisely as the underlying stock is reversing direction. For explicit instructions, check out my GOOG tout for Tuesday and the chart that accompanies it.
GOOG – Google (Last:583.40)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksWe usually save our Jackpot Bets for Friday, but the 593.60 target shown looks so tempting to short that we'll try something different this time: Buy four September 12 580 puts if the stock gets within 20 cents of the target. This is a day order, since the time-decay factor will grow trickier as the week wears on. Although that wouldn't preclude making a high-leverage bet later, it would necessitate more work, since we would need to 'synch' the option and stock price on an hourly basis. I estimate that the puts will be trading for around 0.70 or so with the stock trading near the target, but that price could fall to 0.50 or even lower if it happens late in the day. In no case should you pay more than 0.70 for the puts, nor should you buy more than four of them. ______ UPDATE (12:08 p.m.): Google stumbled out of the gate this morning and fell $8 without rallying, so our jackpot play was a non-starter.
