Monday, September 15, 2014

SLW looks very likely to fall to at least 22.03 (see inset) before it can turn around.  This Hidden Pivot target is sufficiently clear and compelling to warrant aggressive bottom-fishing, albeit with a tight stop-loss. Accordingly, I'll suggest buying eight Oct 3 23 calls if and when SLW is trading within 0.06 points of the target. They'd be a good buy today or tomorrow for around 0.22-0.24, but 'fair value' would fall somewhat due to time decay as the week wears on.  If you'd prefer to use stock, bid 22.06 with a 21.96 stop-loss. _____ UPDATE (Sep 16, 11:37 p.m. EDT): For the moment, we'll put the 22.03 target aside, since SLW's rally yesterday created a robustly bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart.  Now let's see if it can muster a second leg that is at least equal to the still-uncompleted first. _______ UPDATE (Sep 18, 1:07 a.m.): With yesterday's nasty reversal, the 22.03 target is back in play. Use the strategy suggested above. My rough guess is that the calls will be trading on a bid of about 0.18 with SLW at or very near the target.

Gold can be bottom-fished at either of the 'D' Hidden Pivot targets shown, but my strong recommendation -- to repeat the point -- is that you attempt this only if you've been short for the ride to the target.  If you'd rather watch from the sidelines, or if you are taking a prayerful wait-and-see stance, please note that a breach of a Hidden Pivot support indicates that more weakness is likely. In this case, because the 1198.40 target has been six months in coming, we should expect it to evince not only a tradable bounce, but a sustained one of at least 7-10 days' duration.  Any less would be fresh evidence that a bear market now entering its fourth year is not yet over. _______ UPDATE (Sep 16, 11:41 p.m. EDT): Bulls and bears went into 'dueling mode' after the futures impulsed bullishly on the hourly chart, so the jury is still out on this rally. In any case, the recommednation to bottom-fish at 1198.40 should be put on hold for the time being. _______ UPDATE (Sep 18, 1:30 a.m.): Gold has relapsed yet again, putting the downside target and the recommendation above back in play.

We'll soon see whether bears have the guts, composure and good sense to let their profit run, since the futures have gotten within an inch of the 1972.00 correction target shown. As always, a decisive move through such a clear Hidden Pivot support would imply there is selling power remaining to be spent. In this case, however, the Sunday night Sleazeballs have opened the E-Minis with a 13-point air pocket that suggests they're worried. That's a pretty brazen heist, but it also reflect the reality that every point of it was needed to completely exhaust sellers ahead of an equally brazen run-up. The logical place to short this manipulation is near the 1984.75 midpoint pivot (p) shown. Night owls should use camouflage or a mechanical stop to accomplish this. The latter implies 5.00 points of entry risk, predicated on 15 points of downside potential.  For the record, I remain short this vehicle in my BlueFin account from near the all-time high, having stood pat during Thursday's nasty short squeeze. _______ UPDATE (11:24 p.m. EDT): The corresponding target, basis the December contract, is 1962.50.  It will leave DaBoyz with a little more room if they need to take 'er down a second time to dry up sellers ahead of another short squeeze.  The short noted above would therefore be from p=1977.00.  _______ UPDATE (10:28 a.m.): If you shorted 1977.00 as I suggested, the trade would have produced a profit of as much as $375 per contract, since the futures dove 7.50 points from an opening-bar high this morning at 1978.00.  They are ratcheting higher at the moment, bears quite evidently lacking in guts, composure and good sense, but we at least came away with the best trade of the day so far.

Obama’s pledge to “destroy” ISIS would have been more credible if it had come from the Ames, Iowa police chief, or the head of the Sacramento VFW. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for destroying these radioactive cockroaches – and the sooner  the better, since they grow bolder and more numerous by the day.  But even the police chief – and for that matter, the librarian, the PTA chairman in Tallahassee and the dog catcher in Turlock -- know that we cannot hope to even hinder ISIS, much less destroy it, with air strikes alone. Leave it to our dangerously inept commander-in-chief to assure the enemy in advance that there will be no U.S. boots on the ground. Instead, Obama has purported to threaten them with an international coalition that in fact does not exist and which, even if it did, would lack the take-no-prisoners mindset required to exterminate an enemy as savage as ISIS.  More likely is that Obama’s politically calculated four-point plan will strike not fear, but contempt and disdain in the hearts of the enemy.  It will soothe their febrile brains like poetry from the Rubaiyat, perhaps inspiring them to believe that planting ISIS’ flag on the roof of the White House is not such a crazy dream after all. ISIS vs. Idaho Vigilantes Many will have difficulty imagining how this could happen. Militarily speaking, it cannot. ISIS wouldn’t survive a confrontation with Idaho’s militia, much less a battle with U.S. troops. So how are they going to take the White House?  Recall the details of 9/11 to read their psychopathic minds. ISIS will not fight its way down Pennsylvania Avenue; rather, it will use radiological or biochemical weapons to extinguish life across a wide swath of Virginia, Maryland and D.C.  Then, when the dust has settled,