This lesson, although at times a study in tedium, produced paradoxically interesting results. On a relatively quiet day, we focused on two stocks - Google and Priceline – that were moving. There was a lot of psychologizing and second-guessing along the way, but the unexpected result was a quick $800 profit in Priceline. This happened after we’d been stopped out for a $250 loss. The lesson here is that it’s important to get back on the horse if you’ve been thrown. The confident trader should expect losses; they are stepping stones to profits -- and therefore an essential part of a winning game.
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
NQZ14 – December E-Mini Nasdaq (Last:4038.25)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksThe 'Naz' is holding up slightly better than the S&Ps, but the E-Mini NQ would need to vault the two labeled peaks to turn the hourly chart bullish again. If bulls can't summon the energy today to accomplish this, look for the futures to continue their fall to at least 4010.75, the Hidden Pivot target shown. If this happens straightforwardly (i.e., without too much chop), plan on bottom-fishing at the target with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks. Night owls can also look for an abcd set-up to get short for the implied ride south. _____ UPDATE: Our bottom-fishing plan was a non-starter, since the futures went no lower than 4033.00 before a short-squeeze took them sharply higher (most immediately, toward a Hidden Pivot resistance at 4108.50). ______ UPDATE (September 29, 1:46 a.m.): Price action turned nasty last week. This vehicle remains tradable nonetheless, but I'd prefer to watch from the sidelines for now. Most immediately, I'll be interested to see how well bulls use the pattern shown to advance. If you're trading this vehicle, please query me in the chat room when we have more information at our disposal.
A Shaky-Looking Rally Tuesday Night
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksThe E-Mini S&Ps were testing a flimsy looking, too-obvious support in after-hours trading Tuesday night. The rally from it has gone seven points so far, but my gut feeling is that it should be shorted overnight. For graphic guidance, check out the chart accompanying Wednesday's tout. It would be high unusual for stocks to be down three days in a row, of course, but stranger things have happened.
ESZ14 – Dec E-Mini S&P (Last:1991.25)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksBears are on a roll! That's two down days in a row -- about as nasty as it gets any more. Actually, there may be more weakness on the way. Notice that the 'structural' support the futures were testing in after-hours trading Tuesday lies in a too-obvious place (see inset), a single tick above the bear-trap low recorded two Sundays ago. It looks too flimsy to survive till morning. Accordingly, night owls looking to short the next leg down should try attempt it at the 'd' target of whatever rally develops overnight on charts of 5-minute degree or less. I have sketched this hypothetically on the hourly chart for your guidance, but ace Pivoteers will likely be able to improve on the lesser charts. _______ UPDATE: So much for the bears' winning streak. Yesterday's squeeze was sufficiently vicious that they'll likely be on the ropes for the rest of the week. The nearest rally target lies at 1998.25.
