Monday’s moderate selloff was refreshing, but can it last?  Keep in mind that, from a psychological standpoint, an essential component of a new bear market is that “no one” have been short, or gotten short, at the top.  That may eventually turn out to have been true — after all, we did cover some DIA puts, and I exited an S&P short in my personal account on Friday’s moderate spike to new record highs. But if that high was The Top, it was certainly lacking in drama. Even so, it would be easy for Mr. Market to quietly ratchet lower in the days ahead, in a way that generates little interest and no panic; and then, out of nowhere, plunge 500 points in a day. There’s no second-guessing the bear, but let’s note for the record that any guru who called The Top last week is batting 1.000 so far.