Friday, October 3, 2014

The Dollar Index has some rally room before it achieves the 87.98 target shown. The move would amount to 2.5%, but it could take as little as a week to reach at the rate this vehicle has been climbing. Since there is double stopping near the target that goes back to major highs recorded in 2009 and 2010, I'll suggest reversing any long positions and shorting there by offering 200 shares at 87.96, stop 88.06. (Note: The symbol $DXY isn't tradable, but you can approximate it using DXZ14, the futures contract, which is trading within about 0.15 of $DXY at the moment.  I couldn't use the futures contract to project a long-term rally target because the current December contract was not trading back in 2011, where I found a serviceable point 'A' low.) ______ UPDATE: We'll back away from the trade suggested above, since DXY has begun falling from a high at 86.75 that fell more than a point shy of our target. _______ UPDATE (March 31, 11:43 p.m.): DXY took off after having gone no lower than 96.17. The failure to reach a corrective target is bullish. _______ UPDATE (June 1, 9:42 p.m.): A little rally here, a bullish reversal there, and in just two short weeks the dollar has recouped more than half of the correction begun from just above 100 in mid-March. Keep in mind that my long-term forecast sees the Dollar Index testing highs near 120 that were made nearly 15 years ago. 

Bears were on the ropes and getting pummeled early Friday morning, following a Whoopee Cushion ride during the day.  Shortly before 4 a.m. EDT, although the futures were stalled at the 1946.75 midpoint resistance of the pattern shown, a breakout appeared likely. Were that to occur, a follow-through to at least 1957.75 would become an odds-on bet. Night owls can use the 5-minute chart and 'camouflage' to get long off a lesser pattern, but I'd suggest reversing the position at the target with a stop-loss of the short as tight as three ticks.