Wednesday, October 29, 2014

DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:85.40)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The Dollar Index has been consolidating since early October for a likely push to the 87.98 target shown. Although this would leave it just shy of a breakout above the key resistance represented by the 2010 high at 88.71, it would not exhaust the rally targets that can be projected from 2011's bear-market lows.  The highest of them would not only beat 2010's top, it would also surpass the equally daunting one made a year earlier at 89.62.  If both of these resistance peaks are going to be exceeded, confirming the health and longevity of the dollar bull, we should see hints of this in the failure of corrective abc patterns in all time frames to reach their D targets.

A Possible Opportunity for Night Owls

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

In the chat room just now, and via an email alert that went out to all subscribers who have requested them, I've added a potentially tradable note to the current E-Mini S&P tout. (Check my 19:23 post for details, including precise Hidden Pivot coordinates.)  The information will probably be most useful to night owls who trade in European and Asian time zones, but the bottom line for all traders is that the little fillip at the tail end of Tuesday's rally generated a bullish impulse leg with much more power than is immediately apparent.

DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:173.48)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Use the 172.13 Hidden Pivot shown as a minimum upside objective for the next couple of days. Most immediately, and obviously, the target will be useful for staking out a long position. However, because the pattern itself is a good-looking one (albeit gnarly), and because the precise pullback to the midpoint pivot has confirmed the target, 172.13 will also work for shorting with a very tight stop-loss. You can do so using stock or options, but please query me in the chat room if there's a problem. ______ UPDATE (8:38 p.m. EDT): Shorting the 178.47 target shown looks like a juicier (and less risky) bet than the one I'd proposed, but we should still take the odds getting short at 172.13.  Accordingly, I'll recommend buying two Nov 7 171 puts if and when DIA gets with 0.04 of the target. A price of around 0.50 would be doing pretty good in the first hour, but time premium will be melting away as the day wears on, so don't pay up.  You should stop yourself out if the puts trade for 0.20 less than you paid for them. _______  UPDATE (8:15 a.m.): The stunning short-squeeze gap overnight has negated a short from 172.13, since, when options begin to trade, DIA will be more than a full point above that number.  The higher pivot at 178.47 now obtains, but it could be difficult to catch a ride, since "everyone" will by now be hugely bullish -- most particularly short-covering bears.

PCLN – Priceline (Last:1144.22)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

I put out a slew of ambitious rally targets for the "lunatic stocks" in the chat room yesterday, most of which are still in play (see my 13:57 post for the precise numbers).  Priceline, however, has exceeded its 1152.15 target in after-hours trading Tuesday, implying that an even higher target from a larger pattern is now in play. Specifically, I am forecasting a move to at least 1188.29, and suggesting that any buying be done near the 1148.25 midpoint pivot shown. You should use the 'camouflage' technique to initiate the trade, since a 'mechanical entry' at 1148.82 would dictate a stop-loss of about $13. Note as well that my rally pattern uses coordinates taken from a 24-hour chart that includes after-hours action. _______ UPDATE (October 30, 7:37 a.m.): Scale back the target to 1172.01, since price action centered on its sibling midpoint at 1140.69 has confirmed the target itself (60-minute, A=1074.34 on 10/20). The implied long, and the short, will be catch-as-catch-can, but I wouldn't recommend betting the farm in any event.

ESZ14 – Dec E-Mini S&P (Last:1980.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

If you're going to heed bullish advice, wouldn't you rather it come from a die-hard permabear who hates the market no matter what it's doing? With that in mind, let this permabear note for the record that yesterday's blitzkrieg rally surpassed no fewer than THREE external peaks on the daily chart (see inset), generating the wickedest bullish 'impulse leg' we've seen since February. And there's potentially more;  for if the rally should continue for yet another day or two without correcting, it could conceivably knock off two more peaks, including the all-time high, adding nitroglycerine to the implied power behind it. Meanwhile, a denizen of the Rick's Picks chat room reiterated some advice he left earlier: "I will again state that this market will not drop hard from here until sometime after the midterm elections; I said the same thing in early September and then again in October. When this market drops however, it will fall harder and farther than anyone believes. No graphs, charts, or moon cycles foreshadows this -- just pure politics." Okay, then: A little more giddiness for now, presumably peaking on, or shortly after, November 5, when investors will exhale a huge, collective sigh of relief.  As why should they not, since voters will have utterly repudiated the destructive, ideologically poisoned ideas of the worst President in U.S. history? Obamacare alone has all but clinched this judgment, and the law's exorbitant costs to nearly every American household may ultimately prove to be the catalyst that sends the market into the epic plunge we've long anticipated. From a trading perspective, I would suggest that you continue to follow Rick's Picks' daily updates. Yesterday's E-Mini S&P tout, for one, came within two ticks of nailing the 1956.75 low of what turned out to be a 24-point rally. Here's