Thursday, October 30, 2014

The usual talking-head bozos were hard at work Wednesday night, struggling to wring meaning from whatever it was the Fed said earlier in the day.  In fact, the Fed said nothing differing from what it has said in its last fifty press releases. As always, the predictable tedium of the announcement didn't stop the stock market from going into wild spasms for a few hours. For the benefit of those who  participated in this embarrasssing spectacle, let me me repeat a prediction I made about six years ago concerning the question of when the Fed would raise rates. Answer: NEVER.  As for Quantitative Easing, it was just a PR hoax whose alleged termination will have zero impact on investables, including Treasury paper itself. Meanwhile, the Bond bears are so eager to get back on the wrong side of the bet that they are already playing the contrarian to a flurry of stories in the past month that explained why interest rates might actually be headed lower.  Let us state for the record that we see 15-year mortgages going below 2.4% while a global deflation continues to asphyxiate the Fed's failing stimulus program. Concerning the current stoking of Fannie and Freddie to blow another subprime bubble, there is NOT going to be another housing bubble, least of all one driven by buyers with dubious credit entering the market on 3% down. Desperate times may call for desperate measures, but this one is like trying to cure pancreatic cancer with cough drops.

If short-covering bears are going to be back at it on Thursday, we should see the futures reverse from no lower than 1966.50 overnight. This suggests a possible bottom-fishing opportunity for night owls, but be aware that a breach of p by more three ticks would put its 'd' sibling at 1954.75 in play.  If the futures head higher without retracing to 1966.50, a belated entry may be possible by using a pullback from just above 1976.00. That's an external peak that was recorded Wednesday on the way down, and you can find it on the 5-minute chart at 4:10 p.m. Eastern. An even subtler opportunity, drawn from the same chart, would be signaled by a pullback from just above the 1973.00 peak (this one is so tiny you may need a magnifying glass) recorded at 7:25 p.m. _______ UPDATE (6:49 a.m. EDT): The futures were squirrely all night and now look bound for 1957.00 after having failed to go higher overnight.  This looks like real weakness rather than an engineered attempt by DaSleazeballs to exhaust sellers. _______ UPDATE (1:12 p.m.): Short-covering hysteria has returned following a morning low at 1959.25. Looking for minor top at 1986.75.