Friday, October 31, 2014

SIZ14 – December Silver (Last:15.375)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

More downside over the near-term to at least 15.865 (see inset) looks very likely, so traders should position from the short side. The opportunity may be past by morning, but night owls can use an entry trigger on the lesser charts (i.e., 5-minute bar or less) to get aboard. I've highlighted the relevant ABC pattern, which appears at the rightmost edge of the chart. ______ UPDATE (9:23 a.m. EDT): Anyone who got short as advised made a pile of money overnight without much stress.  The futures have plummeted and are currently down about 63 cents, having recorded a so-far low at 15.635 that exceeded our target by by 23 cents. _______ UPDATE (November 5, 8:50 a.m.): A 14.510 target flagged during Monday's 'impromptu' Q&A remains in force.

AMZN – Amazon (Last:302.73)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Three head-butts at the midpoint pivot shown lend authority to the 305.99 target associated with it. Since the bigger picture suggests AMZN could fall to as low as 266.12 before the traumatic correction begun last week has run its course, we'll plan on shorting cautiously at the rally target. Accordingly, I'll recommend buying  four Nov 22 280 puts for 1.00 or less -- contingent on the stock having traded no higher than 306.00. If the target is exceeded, or if the puts stay out of reach, we can adjust on-the-fly in the chat room.  Of course, there's an implied opportunity here as well to get long ahead of the corrective rally's possible last gasp. The rally might also offer us a possible Jackpot Bet, especially if Friday's opening bar is a downer. ______ UPDATE (November 3, 7:15 p.m. EST): The stock opened on a gap above 306.00, so we did nothing officially. So that we can have a horse in the race, and a reason to pay attention to this bear rally, I'll recommend bidding 0.42 for two November 7 295 puts, good for the first hour of the session. You should NOT load up on puts, however, merely because there is an outstanding target well below these levels, at 266. _______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 8:00 p.m.) Officially we did nothing. Although the stock rallied overnight, it opened lower, pricing the puts out of reach.

Betting on the Unimaginable

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Even though the broad averages appear likely to trade at new record highs, I've recommended a small short in DIA not far above yesterday's peak.  I'm going against my gut on this one simply because that which I, and presumably many others, are unable to imagine -- in this case, the violent short-squeeze of the last two weeks simply sputtering out in the opening minutes  -- will always be worth betting against, at least in a small way.

ESZ14 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:1988.75)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

After a ferocious, short-squeeze rally of 10% from mid-October's lows, the futures show no sign of slowing down. Yesterday they exceeded yet another peak on the daily chart, stretching their still-uncorrected winning streak to ten days. We can use the 2037.50 Hidden Pivot target shown as a minimum upside objective for the near term, since, as far as I'm concerned, it is all but a foregone  conclusion that it will be achieved. We can also plan on getting short at the target, with profits banked on the way up providing a generous cushion against the risk of intercepting the rally.