Wednesday, November 5, 2014

The stock is an appealing short here, given the clarity of the played-out rally pattern shown. Accordingly, I'll suggest buying four November 28 101 puts. They were 0.29/0.33 on the close, but you should bid no more than 0.26 for them if it the stock is buoyant at the bell. If the bid goes unfilled, adjust by inching it higher, but don't pay up.  Our goal, assuming AAPL falls from these levels, will be to short puts of a lower strike for as much as, or possibly more than, we've paid for the long side of the position. _______ UPDATE (November 10, 12:07 a.m.): After briefly popping above the rally target I'd flagged at 109.27, Apple screwed with our heads all week. Assuming you were able to buy the puts for 0.26, I'll recommend tying them to a stop-loss at 0.16.  As of Friday's close all signs were pointing higher, with a Hidden Pivot rally target at 110.39 in prospect for the near term.  _______ UPDATE (November 11): We exited the position for a theoretical loss on the trade of $40.

Yesterday's traipsing around generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart, but if the futures move lower to complete the pattern Tuesday night, look for signs of support at p=1999.50; or if not there, at 1990.25. The lower Hidden Pivot looks appealing for bottom-fishing -- a gambit which would require a stop-loss of at least three ticks.  As always, an easy move through either support would imply still lower prices ahead.

The current forecast calls for more slippage over the near term to at least 1141.30, but with the dollar setting up for a correction, we should keep an open mind about gold's bullish potential. Most immediately, and assuming the 1165.40 point 'C' low of the pattern shown is not breached first [Update: It was, decisively], that would imply an upthrust to at least 1179.40.  That's a Hidden Pivot resistance, and it should exhibit very precise stopping power, since the 1172.40 mindpoint pivot with which it's associated precisely contained the last, minor upthrust. If the futures easily push past it we could take further encouragement, even if it would require an uncorrected surge exceeding 1202.80 to tip the odds decisively in favor of bulls. _______ UPDATE (9:14 a.m. EST): I overlooked this target earlier, but my trading partner, John Boutiette, pointed it out to me this morning. It is clean and compelling -- and therefore potentially important: 1137.50, which caught the low of this morning's $30 dive within 0.40.  Take a gander at the pattern on the daily chart: A=1438.30  (8/28/13); B=1185.00 (12/31/13); C=1390.80 (3/17/14).

My outlook for the dollar remains quite bullish, but the rally looks overbought and ready for a correction. Notice that the minor bull cycle begun in mid-September from 83.86 topped on Monday a nickel from the target at 87.36 (see inset).  We have no way of knowing at this point how long the pullback will last, but if DXY were to push decisively above the Hidden Pivot resistance within the next few days, it would attest to the ongoing strength of the bull market. By implication, a pronounced selloff would like cause all investables save the stock market, which is high on crack cocaine, to reverse trends that have been in effect since early July. My gut feeling is that the correction will be minor, but we'll let the charts speak for themselves in the days ahead.

Idaho North [OTC symbol: IDAH] offers investors a potentially lucrative synergy between two very successful entrepreneurs.  CEO Mark Fralich started out as a reporter with the Associated Press News Service but went on to co-found Spoval Fiber Optics before moving into the exploration business with Mines Management, Consolidated Goldfields Corp. and some other natural resource companies. Like most executives in the exploration business, he is an aggressive risk-taker. But he is also an astute bettor, perhaps never moreso than in his choice of Thomas Callicrate to head up his technical team. Callicrate is bottled lightning, a geologist who may know more about ore deposits in Nevada than anyone else in the world. I counted no fewer than 250 file cabinets in the barn-size work buildings that surround Callicrate's spectacular home in Carson City. He seems to have committed every geological map in those cabinets to memory, and he can tell you exactly where each and every rock came from in the massive stone fireplace that dominates his living room and in his beautifully landscaped gardens.  The fact that he chose to affiliate with IDAH attests to his confidence in Fralich's ability to exploit to-the-max whatever ore deposits the company is able to find. From a technical standpoint, the company's shares have not traded for long enough to offer a sound basis for prediction. The stock has fluctuated between 0.08 and 0.24 since being OTC-listed in November 2013. That said, it would be no worse than an even bet to hit 0.3000 a share, nearly double its current price, if it can push past the red line at 0.2150. That's a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance, and it will remain valid as a minimum upside target for the near term unless the stock falls below 0.1300 first. For news concerning two separate