Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Yesterday's sleep-inducing dirge changed nothing in the technical picture. A 1232.00 rally target will remain valid as long as the futures don't dip below 1173.90 first. The target would become an odds-on bet if and when this vehicle pushes decisively past the midpoint resistance at 1203.00. Traders can use the 'camouflage" technique to get long at any time, but a mechanical opportunity to do so could present itself with a push into the range 1210-1220 followed by a pullback to the 1203.00 pivot. Stay tuned to the chat room if this scenario develops, since I may be able to provide explicit instructions at that time.

AAPL has been on a rampage since April, gaining hundreds of billions of dollars in valuation with a run-up of more than 60%.  How long can a stock that is already the most valuable in the world continue to rise vertically?  Probably not forever, it can be safely inferred. It's not as though Apple has no competitors. Indeed, the day is probably not far off when Chinese manufacturers are churning out smart phones that will do just about everything an iPhone can do, but for one tenth the price. Samsung is having troubles of its own coping with brutal competition in mobile devices -- but then again, the company does not enjoy Apple's cult status, nor the kind of caché among customers that has inspired some of them to have the Apple logo tattooed on their butts. From a technical standpoint the stock is closing on a very compelling target at 125.87 that comes from the weekly chart (see inset). I expect this Hidden Pivot to show stopping power that will be compounded by the 126.87 target of a lesser rally pattern that is clearly discernible on the hourly chart. The implied $7+ rally is reason enough to try to get long here if you are not already on board. However, it is also reason to take profits, do covered writes against stock held in a portfolio; or more aggressively, to reverse long positions and get short. In any case, I'll use the 126.37 midpoint of the targeted range as my minimum upside objective for the near term, to serve you in any way that suits your goals.