Monday, January 12, 2015

Two robustly bullish patterns are driving this vehicle at the moment, promising relatively safe transit to the 29.07 target shown.  A gap up opening on Monday morning seems assured if Gold futures hold onto the gains they've racked up in the early going Sunday evening.  This means that although there is no way to get ahead of the move, one can at least pull even with it by jumping on the February Comex contract overnight. _______ UPDATE (January 12, 7:22 p.m.): Buyers easily reached 29.07 as expected and now look poised for a follow-through to the 30.76 target shown.  Now, a pullback to 28.34 could be bought with a 'mechanical' stop-loss at 27.52, although using the 'camouflage' entry technique would be less risky. _______ UPDATE: Wednesday's bull-trap opening was nasty. We'll back away from the stock while noting that a print below 25.91 would negate the  30.76 target. ________ UPDATE (January 15, 11:59 p.m.): GDXJ tripped another buy signal yesterday -- to 30.25.  Will it get there, or is it just screwing with our brains? The suspense is more than I can endure.

A sale at 2.10 was a lay-up on Friday, since the spread peaked near the opening above 2.30.  With about $2640 in profits already booked, I'll suggest holding the remaining spreads till expiration. If TLT is trading above 129 at the time, the total profit on the position would be $3840.  From a technical standpoint, the stock's almost relentless strength is surprising, even to me. In retrospect, it vindicates our strategy -- still viable -- of buying every minor pullback, since that seems to be as much weakness as we'll get.  I still expect the 133.16 target shown to exhibit some stopping power, but we shouldn't be too surprised if buyers just shrug it off. ________ UPDATE (January 16, 12:04 a.m.): Even though I keep repeating that we should expect this vehicle to continue rampaging higher for years and years, I still can't get used to how easily it blows past ostensibly daunting Hidden Pivot resistances. For what it's worth, the next lies at 138.60.  Our position is beyond adjustment at this point and seems all but certain to produce a $3840 gain. _______ UPDATE (January 21, 8:24 p.m.):  Yesterday's selloff was the most vicious we've seen in months, but it had no impact whatsoever on the 138.60 target noted above.  The rather large profit from our spread is safe in any case and will remain so unless Armageddon intervenes.

The futures were consolidating for a push to at least 1229.20 when the week ended, but we shouldn't get our expectations too high, since the only factor seemingly capable of boosting gold these days is a falling stock market. The opportunity here may be for night owls only, since bulls rarely get second wind in this vehicle once U.S. traders have had their second cup of coffee. As always, an easy push through the target would imply the trend driving it is likely to continue.

The 2105.00 bull-market target we've been using remains no less valid than when it was first signaled in October.  However, the tedium we've had to endure waiting for the Hidden Pivot to be achieved has become excruciating with each successive dive from new heights. The latest followed a stall on Friday at 2062, well shy of our mark, amidst a sharp rally that had promised to reverse the nasty selloff of 2015's first two sessions. Clearly, volatility is picking up, challenging bulls and bears alike to hold onto positions. There are no buy-and-hold opportunities, to be sure, since the gigantic swings of late have been sufficient to stop out even the hardiest of risk takers. Since the futures came to rest last week at the approximate midpoint of the latest, gratuitous spasm, my expectations are neutral as the new week begins.  Sunday night owls can try bottom-fishing nonetheess at the 2032.00 midpoint support shown, but if it's breached the next chance you'd get to try again would be at 2017.25, a 'D' target that can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks.

As 2015 began, I browsed the still-robust magazine rack of the Boulder Bookstore for signs of the current Zeitgeist – the intellectual fashion of these times.  As fate would have it, the Zeitgeist experienced a tectonic shift last week with the horrific events in Paris. The violent crimes visited on humanity by four psychopaths who murdered gleefully in the name of Allah will undoubtedly have altered the way we relate to the billboards of popular culture. Our view of the world will have darkened a bit, opening the way for disturbing new strains of nihilism in the arts. Fiction, painting, poetry and theater – if not dance, which remains vibrant  -- are all about to descend a few further steps into the chill of night. Let us consider herewith how things were just before tidal darkness resumed its onslaught against the printed word. A sampling of magazine covers from New Year’s Day, circa 2015: Harper’s Bazaar: Whatever else we may worry about in 2015, it apparently will not be the year that Jennifer Aniston goes over the hill.  See for yourself. Elle: Nicole Kidman, on the other hand, may be a worry. This is the first tarted up picture we’ve seen of her where she didn’t look like her incomparably gorgeous old self. And what’s with the platinum hair? A too-gay art director, perhaps, with an axe to grind? Or did she simply pull a Renee Zellweger? You be the judge. Hipmania: Only in post-feminism America could a magazine hope to entice readers with this teaser: “Search no more: Your genderqueer paper doll is here.” If the magazine world is about to have that silly grin wiped from its face, Hipmania will undoubtedly be among the last to submit. Esquire: Struggling to find an audience ever since men stopped reading