Thursday, January 15, 2015

The lunatic stocks have cooled, to put it mildly. However, because 'stories' have been contrived to justify the selling, it seems likely that the engineered weakness will abate when DaBoyz have pummeled their faves back down to bargain levels. They'll have limited success with Apple, of course, since it's always going to be a challenge to put the knock on such a great company.  Not so, Tesla, however, and even though bloodletting has been under tight control, I expect TSLA to fall a further $21, to 171.09 , or possibly even to 163.88, before the carnage abates. Chipotle was getting a tad rich at 60 times earnings, but it too may be hard to beat down. The current effort derives from a well-timed story that the burrito purveyor is lining up a new, more humane supplier of pork. And the beat goes on.

Copper's chart looks almost as ugly as crude's -- no surprise, since both reflect the state of the global economy far better than nutty GDP figures that seem to capture mainly the health of the U.S. car-leasing business.  Notice that March Copper has bounced from a recent low somewhat above a clear Hidden Pivot target at 2.3635. My hunch is that the eventual low will occur even closer to the target, but that the futures are due for a bounce in any event. (This number corresponds to a projected low of 43.58 in March Crude.) If the support fails, however, you should infer that Copper will fall to 2.1665 before it turns around. That, too, is a Hidden Pivot target, and it can be bottom-fished aggressively with as tight a stop-loss as you can abide. _______ UPDATE (Feb 2, 10:17 p.m.): Copper has gotten tugged higher by the rally in crude oil, with the result that this vehicle now looks bound for at least 2.5555. Anything above that Hidden Pivot would be telegraphing more strength. _______ UPDATE (Feb 3, 11:03 p.m.): This short squeeze will reach a new threshold of viciousness if it exceeds the 'look-to-the-left' external peak recorded on January 13 at 2.6590. Based on Hidden Pivot Analysis, I'm looking for at least 2.6435 over the very near term. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 11:20 p.m.): Doc Copper now looks poised for a run-up over the near term to 2.6675, a Hidden Pivot resistance of middling importance. _______ UPDATE (Feb 10, 8:18 p.m.): Oh well, Doc Copper has aborted the move. I'm going to archive this tout lest we become bored with it. FWIW, at Wednesday's close, the downtrend pointed to a minor Hidden Pivot support at 2.5208, or 2.5010 if any lower. _______ UPDATE (Feb 12, 11:50 a.m. EST):

Even on the hourly chart, you can see how the Dow could continue to effect 1000-point swings without saying much.  There have been no fewer than three such swings since early December, and they add nothing to our store of knowledge other than that volatility seems to be picking up.  Does that imply something has changed? Maybe. But even if so, Wall Street has been shrugging off earth-shaking headlines for nearly six years, acting as though all news is either good news or irrelevant.  From a technical standpoint, yesterday's low could not conceivably have occurred in a more obvious place, two points from last Tuesday's bombed-out low. This means the low is likely to be tested today, and that a probable failure will send the Indoos down to  mid-December's 17067 low in search of better traction.