Thursday, January 22, 2015

Gold hasn't been a buy-and-hold bet in a long time, but that doesn't mean we can't keep getting in and out regularly and easily, as we did earlier this week, for some profitable rides. Check out my bottom-fishing suggestion for February Comex Gold tonight if you trade this vehicle off-hours.

The stop-loss I recommended for those still long at yesterday's 1307.00 top would have ejected bulls from the position near 1296.20.  Buy-and-hold is NOT an option in this vehicle, since, more than three years into a bear market, any downtrend could be the start of something nasty. We shouldn't sweat the extra work of getting in and out as long as entry opportunities on the rallies are numerous and relatively easy to exploit. One to consider Wednesday night if you're a night owl is a bid at the 1285.60 midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown.  A three-tick stop-loss would be appropriate, but keep the position size down to a single contract unless you make entry via 'camouflage.' Of course, an easy move through the pivot would be warning of more downside to 1275.30, a Hidden Pivot support that could be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as 3-4 ticks. ________ UPDATE (January 22, 9:21 a.m.): The futures were unusually uncooperative, pulling back to 1283.30 for a small bounce before making an eventual low at 1279.10.  In retrospect, the only 'easy' way in would have been via camouflage, where entry was sginaled on the 15-second bar chart at 1283.20 (7:34:30 a.m.)

Wednesday's constipated price action demonstrated what happens when DaBoyz are intent on pushing the futures higher even when bullish buying interest is nil. Most of the day's flatulence effected a churn near the 2024.25 midpoint pivot shown.  However, the direction was up, even if feebly, and so DaBoyz were at least successful in keeping short-covering bears on the ropes. This dynamic is very nearly irreversible once begun, and so we should regard a further rally to the 2050.75 target as all but certain. Positioning ahead of the move is another matter, however, and I'll leave it to you to craft an elegant solution in real time from whatever messy smorgasbord of possibilities arises. _______ UPDATE (9:28 a.m.):  DaSleazeballs used up quite a bit of short-covering anxiety goosing this vehicle to  2047.00 an hour before the opening. Bears remained on the ropes before the bell, though, as stupid and anxious as ever,  so the 2050.75 target still obtains as a minimum objective.