The wicked volatility of the last six weeks has grown increasingly tiresome, besides having made it nearly impossible to stick with a long or short position. My gut feeling is that the gratuitous hysteria will resolve to the upside with a move to new record highs. That's not as bullish as it sounds, however, since in my estimation there's a good chance the rally will prove to be a bull trap. For the time being, though, short-term indicators are bullish and could offer DaBoyz an opportunity to set the hook on Friday for a short-squeeze that would spill into next week. ________ UPDATE (5:44 p.m): DaBoyz did no such thing -- could barely even rally the broad averages even though two lunatic-stock bellwethers, Google and Amazon, were screaming, and Apple, the world most valuable company, was buoyant. As January draws to a close, it's becoming increasingly clear that something is troubling the stock market.
Friday, January 30, 2015
SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:22.97)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksIt's been a while since we looked in on this stock, a favorite of traders and investors because it tracks the price of silver with such fidelity. By exceeding two prior lows -- one internal, the other external -- the selloff of the last two days has generated a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart. However, notice that the decline has done little damage to the bullish look of the rally since December. My gut feeling is that the current weakness will not exceed the 20.93 low recorded on January 8 (see inset). This implies that we can use an ABC pattern similar to the one shown to get long. Stay tuned! _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 11:14 p.m.): Based on the above, a buy signal was tripped at 22.62 off a point 'C' low at 21.80. The trade would require a stop-loss for the entire position at 21.79, held against an order to take a partial profit on half your shares at 22.62. There are less risky ways to get aboard belatedly, but I'll wait to hear from subscribers in the chat room before I establish a tracking position. _______ UPDATE (Feb 2, 10:11 p.m.): Nothing reported, so this tout will be shelved in the archive.
GCG15 – February Gold (Last:1271.90)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksIf you felt the sting of yesterday's selloff, take encouragement from the fact that it looks merely corrective on the daily chart. That's because the recent high at 1307.80 managed to exceed a prior 'external' peak recorded back in August before bulls took a breather. Healthy rallies tend to do this with each new thrust, creating fresh bullish impulse legs, while weak ones usually chicken out an inch shy of an earlier peak. The implication in this case is that when the presumptive correction ends, the next rally cycle could be good for as much as a $140 gain. Expect more weakness in the meantime, however -- for at least the next 2-3 days, that is -- because yesterday's low decisively exceeded a 1261.60 Hidden Pivot support by $10. ______ UPDATE (11:28 a.m. EST): After turning from a low of 1257.00, the futures have traded as high today as 1274.70. Ordinarily I would say the reversal is 'premature', but because it has already exceeded a key 'external' peak at 1273.50 on the 15-minute chart, signs look good for continued strength.
ESH15 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1888.75)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksYesterday's rally tripped a buy signal for a ride to as high as 2074.25 over the near term (see inset). That would significantly shorten the odds that a longstanding bull-market target of ours that lies only somewhat higher will be reached. (Check the archive of E-Mini S&P touts for the precise number.) Most immediately, subscribers who got long yesterday at the 2005.25 trigger point should be prepared to take a partial profit on half the position at the 2028.25 midpoint pivot. I am assuming that some of you did the trade because I called attention to the set-up as it unfolded during yesterday's 'impromptu' trading/analysis session online. If you're long, please let me know in the chat room and I'll establish a tracking position for your further guidance. Presumably, any contracts still held above 2074.25 would be purposed on a finishing stroke to our bull-market target (a number that we've planned to short aggressively). _______ UPDATE (9:05 a.m.): A conventional 'test' of the 2000 level? Whatever the reason, index futures have sold down hard overnight, with the E-Mini S&Ps falling the equivalent of 200 Dow points. Longs held from Thursday's close would be using a mechanical stop-loss at 1981.75, but you might also have exited on an 'impulsive' one around 2002.50, since that's where the lesser charts went impulsively bearish this morning at around 7:57 a.m. Again, please let me know in the chat room and I'll provide tracking guidance. My gut feeling is that stock will rally higher at the bell, but that the bloodbath will resume as the day wears on. _______ UPDATE (10:44 a.m.): As anticipated in the previous update, stocks rallied at the opening but are now collapsing. Anyone with a long position in this vehicle had a chance to exit as high as 2012.50 before
