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A Bad Feeling…

By Rick Ackerman Posted on February 10, 2016, 11:55 pm EST Last Updated February 11, 2016, 11:13 am EST

My latest forecast for the E-Mini S&Ps raises the prospect of an imminent plunge of 170 points, equivalent to about 1400 Dow points.  The accompanying chart, with some hypothetical bars that I’ve added, shows this happening fairly quickly, perhaps over the next 2-3 weeks. However, there is a subjective factor behind my assessment: It feels to me like the economic/geopolitical world is starting to unravel. Fortunately, gut feelings like that are nearly always wrong. But I can’t deny that the feeling is there. Merely because stocks are still capable of rallying even as headlines around the world grow darker by the day suggests to me that the U.S. stock market is dangerously complacent.  And have Wall Street’s best and brightest even noticed what is going on in the T-Bond market? When the deflationary contagion spreads to the U.S. dollar, it’s going to be Katie-bar-the-door time for all the nitwits who have bet the Fed has more tightening to do.

  • Brian Hemeryck February 11, 2016, 12:04 pm

    Boy…did you peg this one! Nicely done Rick.

    &&&&&

    Thanks for noticing, Brian. Stop for long enough to pat oneself on the back, though, and one is dead meat. RA

  • John Jay February 11, 2016, 9:19 am

    Wow!
    ZB hit 170^26 overnight, GC hit 1243.
    On top of the economic turmoil, we have the MENA ready to explode with the KSA/Syria/Turkey/Iran/Russia/Kurds mix set to produce God knows what.
    It looks like the Balkans in 1914 to me.

    South of our border, the Mexican peso hits an all time low, Puerto Rico is broke, Venezuela is extra special Bankkrupt, Brazil is broke too, but the Carnival roars on anyway.
    China is staggering, N and S Korea are squaring off.

    With Trump and Sanders ascendant, the Koch brothers are complaining that they are losing control of their country!
    LOL!

    It looks like the last 50 years of endless inflation in housing, autos, tuition, healthcare, and above all debt has likely reached the edge of the petri dish.

    And 50 years of Open Borders and Free Trade has produced a situation where Candidate Sanders is trying to remedy those consequences with a $15 an hour minimum wage.
    That simple solution will seem a great idea to the masses, but won’t solve the problem of course.

    To sum it all up…..

    There are no solutions, only consequences!

    &&&&&&

    A nice catalogue of incipient disasters with the world at the tipping point, JJ. RA

  • none February 11, 2016, 3:50 am

    good feelings…


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