Betting Against Chimpanzees

With the broad averages in an extremely tedious slog sideways since mid-December, it has been very difficult to get short. A nettlesome problem is that even relatively feeble head-fakes are pushing into record-high territory. We got short anyway on Friday, taking a small speculative position in DIA puts. This is a post-inauguration play if you will, even if nothing of substance will have changed come Monday morning. It would not be unusual for fund managers, who are paid to throw Other People’s Money at stocks, to experience one of their wonted, psychotic mood swings next week — if for no other reason than that Trump has replaced Obama. This is going to be a very big deal eventually, since our new president has made some grandiose promises. But if chimp-brained money managers intend on taking shares much higher without further reflection — especially with an almost certain housing bust looming — then they are even stupider and more reckless than we might have imagined.

  • John Jay January 22, 2017, 11:33 pm

    Well, it is becoming increasingly obvious that the George Soros minions are just not going to accept Donald Trump as POTUS. All I see are lawsuits, impeachment actions, and more and more vicious MSM attacks on Trump and his Adminstration. This is serious business indeed. It is starting to look more and more like the Confederate States refusal to accept Lincoln as POTUS in 1860. The battle lines are being drawn up as I write this. If things continue down this path, we will have a lot more to worry about than chaotic markets.

    Things in DC look like they are spinning out of control to me. Civil War will negate my strong U S Dollar position. Trump has filled his Administration with high ranking Military Officers, and all the Generals and Admirals that Obama purged in his 8 years in office may get called back by Trump. After all, he is now C in C of a huge Military. How many Divisions does George Soros have?, to channel Joeseph Stalins, “How many divisions does the Pope have?” query. It could all unravel rapidly, scary to consider the consequences of that! Jesus Christ!

    • Rick Ackerman January 23, 2017, 4:47 pm

      Relax, JJ, they don’t have the votes. It is because of this that even the fired-up Schumer will fail in his number one project — derailing Trump’s first SCOTUS appointment. Will the GOP follow Reid’s lead and nuke the filibuster to make the appointment stick. You bet! In a New York minute.

      Concerning Soros, this beautiful hatchet job by City Journal is guaranteed to make your day: http://bit.ly/2jGFUfZ

  • Rob January 22, 2017, 8:58 pm

    ” especially with an almost certain housing bust looming”

    I’ve been thinking the same thing but was curious if you could share some of your thoughts on the subject. Seems no one anywhere is predicting a housing downturn right now and it seems so obvious to me.

    • Rick Ackerman January 23, 2017, 4:38 pm

      30-year mortgage rates are up by nearly 70 basis points from their lows, with home prices still rising due to tight supply. These factors had already asphyxiated the re-fi market and brought a moribund first-time buyer market an inch from death. This is a perfect storm, as far as I’m concerned. When did the usual idiots ever even notice such things until Recession hit full-bore?