Is the Surge in Long-Term Rates Over?

EST

It’s been a while since I’ve updated my forecast for a rise in long-term Treasury rates to 3.409%, a benchmark that sits well above the current rate of around 3.047%. Although the target is still in play (see TYX tout and chart at bottom), I am not suggesting buying the pullback at these levels because there’s technical evidence the correction begun three weeks ago from 3.197% has farther to go. Moreover, if the decline were to exceed 3.025% to the downside, that would turn the daily chart impulsively bearish, adding to the evidence that long-term rates have seen their highs, possibly for a long while.

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John Jay January 4, 2017, 10:12 pm

Hard to tell what is actually going on in the US T Bond/Note market.
My take is that a message is being sent to any foreign government holding large amounts of US Government Paper.
The message?
If you are going to sell your holdings, you had better get our approval first.
Otherwise you will be selling into a whirlpool, and can count on getting screwed.
And when you have finished selling into a declining market, we can and will send those prices right back up, just to rub it in.
In other words, “We will control the horizontal, we will control the vertical.”
You can work with us, or you can experience “The Outer Limits”!



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