The Yellow Flag Is Out

The Dow Industrial Average now sits within 429 points of a potentially very important ‘Hidden Pivot’ target at 21,049 that was first signaled when the Dow hit 18675 back in November. The target is derived from purely technical calculations, and when I first aired it my gut feeling was that it seemed unlikely to be reached. However, I’ve learned over time to ignore mere feelings and instead trust the charts, especially when they seem to conflict with logic and ‘fundamentals’.  That is the case now, in the extreme. A real estate bust is taking shape and stocks have already discounted the best we might hope for, economically speaking, from Trump’s first year. It is also a concern that AMZN, which I rank as THE most important stock market bellwether, is closing on a potentially very important rally target (see my tout below). Although there is still some upside to be milked from the aging bull market, I have unfurled the yellow flag nonetheless — for purely technical reasons.  Let buyers beware.

  • Farmer February 17, 2017, 9:06 am

    There is a strong chance of a corrective decline beginning today and running through the next week. I am calling for a decline in the DOW of no more than 2.5%. My indicator works Rick although the Nikkei has started to fall before ever reaching my upside high target near 20,000. Nonetheless it did breach the minimum level I talked to you about when I warned a market decline was imminent and could begin at any point. Not bad for a breathless warning even if I was early by a week or so! Anyway, unless hourly charts on the indices reverse and head higher right now we are going to see some red for at least the next week.