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Rick Ackerman
July Silver’s breach of a clear and compelling target at 28.100 was not a good sign. I’ve nonetheless provided a sequence of targets in Silver than can be used to detect a possible bullish turn. In any case, December’s watershed low at 26.500 will turn magnetic by such time as Silver futures have achieved the lowermost of my immediate targets.
We’ve straddled QQQ and GDXJ with put purchases in each on Friday. Wild price swings or a powerful trend is what we’re looking for, but because even a feint intraday could help us spread off the risk, I’ll recommend keeping close tabs on this one. To subscribe to real-time alerts, simply go to your My Account page and click ‘E-Mail Notifications’.
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The nasty correction begun five weeks ago from 33.360 has a little farther to go before it hits 28.100, (My apologies, since I originally gave this as 28.810. I have not been able to type this number correctly in my last ten tries.) This Hidden Pivot is compelling, and we should therefore plan on bottom-fishing aggressively. This implies you can back up the truck — but do your buying very tightly stopped or, better yet, with camouflage. Alternatively, bulls would signal a rampage with a print today at 29.815. The chart shows the significance of this number, along with the ABCD symmetry that makes the 28.100 target so appealing.
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[Gary Leibowitz frequently raises hackles in the Rick’s Picks forum with his mantra that business is great, stocks are underpriced, and -- at least for the time being -- the U.S. economy is going great guns. Who knew that he is also expecting a global depression that will last for more than a decade? In the guest commentary below, he explains why – but also why, with two caveats, gold is likely to be one of the best places for investors to be for at least the next six years. RA]
I must confess that I’d been a gold bear for many years. When I reevaluated my position, I surprised myself when my conclusions made a 180-degree turn. On average gold has an 18-to-20-year life cycle, which implies the bull run will run until 2018-20. The cycle doesn’t necessarily mean a huge run-up, but it does mean there should be very little downward pressure. The other factor that is encouraging is how most gold cycles, when there are strong signs of upward movement, terminate with an even larger and steeper rise near the end of the cycle. If history is a guide, we should therefore expect the most dramatic phase of the rally to occur six to eight years from now. » Read the full article
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Is Fear of Deflation Sapping Gold and Silver?
by Rick Ackerman on May 15, 2012 2:45 am GMT · 38 comments
There’s no point in pretending it’s those sleazy, child-molesting bullion bankers at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan who have been pounding on mining stocks and bullion futures in the last few months. Lately, it has felt like the whole world has been dumping them. For the record, we are ourselves cautious buyers of bullion futures and select mining stocks at these levels, since many popular trading and investment vehicles that we track are closing on important Hidden Pivot correction targets. (Want to find out the exact prices at which were are doing the buying? Click here for a free trial subscription to Rick’s Picks, including real-time guidance and a 24/7 chat room where the discussion never stops.)
When bottom-fishing in markets that have been falling as steeply as gold and silver have been falling, we recall the advice of our friend, the late Malcolm Watts: “When attempting to catch a falling piano,” Malcolm, a PSE option trader and gifted technician, used to say, “wait until it has bounced three times.” (It was not a falling piano that felled our friend when he was in his thirties, by the way, but the stresses of the market on an apparently defective heart.) So, have bullion futures bounced the required three times yet? By our count, there have been more like four bounces since February. And although that may not mean it’s perfectly safe to buy the precious-metals complex at current levels, it does imply that those who waited are happy they did. » Read the full article