ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
All Is Sunshine
And Lollipops...
For edition of August 23, 2005
The small put position that we held to expiration died ingloriously last week during my brief absence, as stocks continued to skate blithely on a narrow plank of less-than-horrendous news. The bulls, putting their always-sunny spin on world events, seemed oblivious to the glowering menace of $3 gas, the latest triumph of jihad in Gaza, the impending housing bust, the specter of a U.S. defeat in Iraq, and so-so corporate earnings in the third quarter. Of course, it’s not the news per se that matters, but the way in which it is managed. For instance, Mr. Greenspan and others have been reassuring us all along that high fuel prices are no big threat, since the U.S. economy, driven as it is by helium-rich financial products, is well capable of absorbing the punishment of soaring energy prices. As to Gaza, Condie appears confident that Israel can be pushed to the point of oblivion without unsettling the brittle truce that so far has postponed all-out war in the region. And wither Iraq? Relax. Mr. Bush is on the offensive with a PR campaign that will turn Cindy Sheehan and her minions to mush. And now that the Conference Board has effectively eliminated the bearish impact of a narrowing yield curve, we can look forward to docile leading-indicator numbers as far as the eye can see.
Some wall of worry! From a permabull’s perspective we are in heaven – and what’s not to like? Surely we were born with two arms rather than one so that, in times such as these, we could buy stocks hand-over-fist.