ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
Anthrax a Factor
As Stocks Ease?
For edition of March 16, 2005
Hard to tell what was driving stocks yesterday: anthrax, higher oil prices, unfavorable lunar influences, rising bond yields -- take your pick. It may have been a combination of all of them, but if so, the net effect wasn’t very dramatic. The Dow was off a piddling 59 points, in line with other indexes that eased lower from around midsession. We were tempted to cover part of our short position in the E-mini S&P earlier in the day, but the mini’s lazy drift even in rally mode convinced us to stick with our bearish bet. The intraday high missed our stop by a couple of points before the futures dropped back 15 points.

Because I’ll be away for the next five days, I’ve provided in today’s Inside Edition a trailing-stop strategy that can be implemented if the decline gets serious. So far, though, the selling has been tepid – so tepid, in fact, that even the most modest of my downside targets has yet to be hit. The nearest lies at 1195.00, basis the E-mini S&P, and it would have been a logical place to cover at least a part of our short, had it been hit during yesterday’s session. Since it wasn’t, though – the actual low was 1197.25 – we’ll let things ride for now.
Let me add that 1195.00 looks like a very reliable hidden pivot support for those of you who are inclined to bottom-fish with micro-tight stops. Please note, however, that if the support is breached by more than two or three ticks, the next stop would 1189.75. A third pivot at 1185.75 is my worst-case number for the next day or two, assuming no avalanche lies in the offing. Like the other two pivots, it can be bottom-fished with the tightest stop-loss you can handle.