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ARCHIVED COMMENTARY

Bullion a Buy

On Weakness

For edition of January 05, 2005


We’re off to a good start this year, even if the U.S. stock market is not. For one, we sidestepped the weakness in gold and the broad averages by taking profits in several issues before they started to fall. For two, a stock that we did buy, Cameco (CCJ), has been on a holy tear and even managed to eke out a $1.15 gain yesterday as most other stocks were falling. We took some more profits yesterday in CCJ, which at the top of its recent 10-point rally gave us a paper gain of $4,000 for the small, 400-share position. Cameco has been so hard to buy in recent months that we’ll likely hold onto the shares we’ve got, augmenting the position on dips, and using puts and calls to cushion whatever corrections come. We also did some timely profit taking in Citi, allowing us to reduce the cost basis on some March 50 calls to just $13 apiece. Even if we can’t get them down to zero, it’ll be hard to lose on this position. You may have noticed that the stock has acted pretty well during the last few days, although yesterday’s surge in yields appears to have brought out sellers.

 

The pullback in precious metals has provided us with additional opportunities, including a bottom-fishing gambit yesterday in February silver that got us long precisely on the low of the day, 6.350, with a 1-cent stop-loss.  Since we were in at the exact bottom, I suggested some partial profit-taking intraday at around 6.43, leaving what’s left of the position to your discretion, pending a projected move to at least 6.590. Meanwhile, although gold swooned as expected, the February mini-contract did not quite get down to our target at 422.80, where we cautious bidders. My hunch is that the selling in precious metals is not quite done and that mining shares have a bit farther to fall before the bull gets traction. We’ll be waiting, with bids below the market in stocks as well as metals futures.





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