I’ll be away from the office for the next ten days, so Thursday’s forecasts and recommendations will be the last until my return on Monday morning, August 22.  For what it’s worth, I should mention that the stock market has taken wicked dives in my absence more often than would seem probable. Coincidentally, however, a stockbroker friend who has experienced exactly the opposite – stocks always seem to explode whenever he goes away for more than a few days -- will be on vacation during the same period. Should we then short the August options in expectation of a karmic push? In fact, we’ve already bet that August expiration will not pass quietly, straddling puts and calls in the QQQs and Diamonds. These are small bets, to be sure, but they will provide a good deal of leverage if next week’s countdown to expiration should prove to be more interesting than the last few.

(Click on chart to enlarge)

We could probably think of a hundred good reasons why the averages would tank. But what might cause them to surge higher? One possibility is that crude oil prices are near an important top and that the impending correction will allow the world’s energy users – you, me and just about everyone else – to breathe a sigh of relief. Prices at the pump are pushing $2.50 for regular hereabouts, and that’s at stations that use cheap gas to lure shoppers, such as Costco and Safeway. If the trend is about to reverse it will need to happen soon, though, since yesterday’s strong thrust brought September crude came within 2 cents yesterday of the 65.02 target I headlined here a few days ago.  Any higher, and my guess is that the not-so-magical number $70 will begin to exert an irresistible pull.