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ARCHIVED COMMENTARY

Google Sell-Off

A Bull's Delight

For edition of July 22, 2005


Google shares were getting bludgeoned in after-hours trading, down nearly $17 on word that revenues had grown by “only”100% over a year-earlier’s $700 million, and that profits had merely quadrupled. Here’s how the resident genius at Susquehanna Financial struggled to explain it: Revenue was a little better than published expectations, said Marianne Wolk, the firm’s Internet analyst,  but there "was not as much upside as some had hoped." If your rich uncle had died and left you $100 million, this is like saying, geez, I always thought he was richer than that. Reminds me of one of my fraternity brothers, who, if he’d drawn Bo Derek as a blind date, would have dumped her for not being blonde enough.

 

(Click on chart to enlarge)

 

Talk about being hard to please! Ms. Wolk’s perfunctory explanation aside, though, we should all recognize that the sell-off in Google was triggered not by disappointment, but by the fact that everyone and his mother was already long the stock in anticipation of the news, which for all intents and purposes could not have been better. The lesson here is that being an “insider” can be risky, especially if ten thousand other investors have been gifted with the same, vine-ripened piece of intelligence.

 

Buy the Spread

 

Granted, the stock’s steep dive will have taken some of the steam out of our September 320-August 320 calendar spreads. However, if you didn’t buy this position the first time around for $340, I’d suggest laying in a small supply now, perhaps at even lower prices, since I am still confident the stock will reach a minimum $326. Google has been shaken down for a reason -- so that the smart money can now buy more for less. But the fact remains, the company is one of very, very few that can confidently be expected to make profits hand-over-fist no matter how the U.S. economy performs. Long-term bulls should therefore revel in the opportunity this selling panic will create, since anything that fails to kill GOOG will only make it stronger.





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