My latest heating bill didn’t include the recent cold snap here in Colorado, but even without it, the bill was 50% higher than any I’ve ever paid before. So much for the hundred bucks a month I was just starting to save on my monthly phone bill by switching to VoIP. Maybe I can get my two boys to start eating bulk breakfast cereal instead of the box-and-a-half of Yogurt Burst Cheerios they’ve been averaging each day since school began. That could save as much as $100/month, more than enough to cover next year’s dues increase at the local gym. Such facilities are all about energy, a fact that hadn’t occurred to me until I received notice a few weeks ago of a huge monthly fee increase. They’ve got a heated pool, stream rooms and saunas, a cavernous gymnasium, and dozens of shower stalls running all day long on $14 natural gas.

I don’t want to be the bearer of bad tidings, but my commodity charts do not point toward relief any time soon. Even though crude oil is probably capped for the winter at $70 -- the peak price in the aftermath of Katrina – natural gas looks like it could conceivably double from here. Conceivably. Then again, maybe Mother Friggin’ Nature will back off for a month with a felicitous warm spell across the U.S.A.?  I wouldn’t count on it, though.

Ben W, a long-time subscriber from Ohio, says that high heating bill are starting to hit hard where he lives:

“Just thought I'd send you a note about the practical effects of $14+ natural gas. You may recall that I am a physician in Ohio, where we have been experiencing a bit of a cold snap the last week or two. The girls in my office are not underpaid by any means, but today I found out that due to high heating bills last month (before things even turned really cold), two of them are keeping their home thermostats set to 62 degrees and one has hers set at 55!  I wonder how much this will actually lower their bills, and if it doesn't lower them enough, will it lead them to start spending less as well to compensate?  I also had a patient tell me he was keeping his home thermostat set in the low 60s as well.  Four people in one morning.  I found that amazing.  Anyways, thought you'd be interested in hearing a tale from the 'front lines' of the high cost of energy.”

In a postscript, Ben also provided an insider’s perspective on Merck’s Vioxx problems, which he expects to worsen:  

“I don't own or follow Merck stock, but you might want look for a promising place for subscribers to go short sometime soon.  The hung jury that came back in this latest Vioxx case is as good as a loss for them.  I don't know the details of the case except that the plaintiff had taken Vioxx for about a month.  There is simply no data to support Vioxx causing problems in that short a span of time.  If they can't win a case like that, their liabilities are going to be extreme.  I don't have a high volume practice, but in the 'early days', I would estimate over 50% of the patients I saw were put on Vioxx for at least a week or more (thousands of patients for me alone).  Most ended up being on it for less than 6 months, but if they can all potentially sue Merck...  well it could get very ugly, very quickly.  Those $50 billion dollar 'high' estimates will begin looking low.”