A while back, I promised you that I would never become a cheerleader for gold – that  I would simply call ‘em as I see ‘em. The ranks of guru-dom are already far too crowded with hucksters who never stop blathering about a supposedly imminent bullion moon-shot to $1,000-plus an ounce. These are the same guys who tell us, every time the price of gold declines for more than two consecutive days, that there is some ugly conspiracy to suppress bullion quotes. My bias on precious metals and mining shares is bullish, as you will already know, but, fortunately for subscribers, I never allow myself to become more bullish than the technical evidence permits. Gold may indeed be on its way to astronomical heights. But as far as I’m concerned, it’s the here and now that we need to focus on.

Most recently, for instance, with December Comex Gold trading $467 in late September, I wrote the following:

Upside targets for the December contract could not be much clearer. A hidden pivot at 483.00 is my minimum projection, but if the futures close above it, or trade higher than 484.10 intraday, you can confidently expect the next hidden pivot to be achieved, at least: 500.00.

One Tick Off Gold’s Peak

As it happened, December Gold peaked two weeks later, at exactly 483.10. Since then, the contract has sold off $15, touching a so-far low on Friday morning of 468.30. Lurkers especially should take note: These are numbers that are accessible only to paid subscribers. If you are a serious gold bug, isn’t it about time you considered springing for the measly $29.16 per month that it would cost you to subscribe to Rick’s Picks. Meanwhile, I hope my paid subscribers will forgive this promotional digression. Unfortunately, in the guru business it is not astoundingly accurate forecasts and consistently profitable trades that bring subscribers running, but unmitigated, relentless hype. And for the record: Every mining share we currently hold is showing a substantial profit, each position having been entered within pennies of a major swing low. If you want to verify this for yourself, take a free one-day pass to the site and check out my archive, where all trades from the past can be found.  

While we’re busy tooting our own horn, take a gander at Friday’s pas de deux with the mini-S&P contract, pictured in the chart below. On Thursday night I sent out the following, precisely anticipating the next day’s rally to 1189.50 (The E-mini had closed Thursday at 1178.00):

My S&P Advice

The futures spent the entire day oscillating around a hidden-pivot support at 1178.00 that I'd described as crucial. A decisive breach of that number today would all but guarantee a plunge to exactly 1151.50. As of Thursday's close, however, this outcome remained in doubt, since the minor trend actually pointed higher -- to 1189.50, pending any progress above a lesser hidden resistance at 1183.50.

A rally to the higher number would probably send shorts scrambling for cover, disrupting a pattern of steady erosion that continues to feel like a dam about to burst. Complacency reigns, and Wall Street's ability to shrug off ominous rumblings in the tech sector suggests that investors may be taking a little too much in stride these days. However, if the December S&Ps launch from 1178.00 today, it would probably set up a last-gasp short-squeeze next week. This would presumably clear the path for the October crash so many of us have been anticipating. Keep your bulletin launcher open, since I'll probably recommend a short intraday if the bulls get too firsky (lest all those firsky bulls hurt themselves).

Then, on Friday, I sent out a bulletin, following up with several updates during the day (text to the left of the chart). If you know someone who trades the mini-indexes and could use this kind of advice, please send him/her my way. We’ll extend your subscription by one month for each new paying subscriber you introduce to Rick’s Picks.

(Click on image to enlarge)