For those who follow the stock market closely, nothing stirs the imagination like a prolonged stretch of boredom. The less stocks do, it seems, the more vividly we come to expect dramatic change. In such times, investors dwell in a purgatory of angst, the psychological boundaries of which are described, literally, by Bollinger bands: Squeeze them too tightly or for too long and they eventually explode with the force of a stampede. This seems like just such a time, and it’s been driving forecasters into a frenzy. Some of my colleagues think the stock market is in imminent jeopardy of collapse while others believe it is basing for a decisive push higher. I am in neither camp, although strongly inclined to bet with the bears at the moment.

(Click on chart to enlarge)

The long-term chart above shows why the burden of proof falls heavily on the bulls; for if they are to lift the stock market to new heights, they'll need to buy shares with confidence so unshakable as to overwhelm the doubters. The enormous weight of bearish skepticism is evident in the Himalayan peaks and valleys etched into the chart over a two year period beginning in 1999. This mountainous supply of stock will not be surmounted by ebullience that fails to match dot-com mania in its intensity, much less by mere hope and serendipity. Mustering that kind of energy will perforce take longer than the nearly 14 months the market has already spent languishing in mechanically driven moodlessness.  When I look at the chart abstractedly, I sense neither impending calamity nor exuberance, only the pull of gravity on a stock index that could surrender 1500 points without changing the big picture one bit. How does it strike you?