ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
Minor-Cycle Bear
Appears Winded
For edition of March 15, 2005
We’ve had bids in below the market for the mini-Dow futures and the E-mini S&P, but two days of waiting has yet to see either order filled. These are not lows of any great consequence, just minor-cycle bottoms that in theory, at least, should yield low-risk entry points for some well-leveraged bottom-fishing. We’re already short the S&Ps and have been looking for an opportunity to cover a part of the position. That would allow us to raise the cost basis for what remains, and to relax if the futures should rally against us for a short while.
(Click on image to enlarge)

Yesterday, though, both vehicles were having such difficulty falling the last few points to their respective targets that one might infer they want to go higher. On the other hand, the rally in shares looked pretty feeble considering that crude oil prices eased while the dollar index and bonds rose. With no compelling technical evidence to guide us, we’ll call it a push and start with a clean slate today. We’ll also lower the stop-loss on our short S&P position, since there’s no point in putting a potential 30-point gain at risk just because things went so nicely in our favor for the first five days.