There are days when Wall Street easily could have shrugged off word from IBM of a five-cent earnings shortfall, but yesterday wasn’t one of them. Big Blue reported 85 cents a share for the first quarter, but the analysts’ "dartboard number" evidently was a nickel higher. The announcement came two days earlier than expected, but judging from the way the stock has been falling all week, everyone on the Street  knew what was coming. Ordinarily, experienced investors might be looking for a bullish opening this morning, since rumors of earnings weakness obviously have been factored into Beamer's current share price. But the actual news came out after the close, and that's bound to create intense selling pressure overnight (assuming world peace doesn’t break out in the interim.)

Meanwhile, those able to dump stock in after-hours trading have sent IBM shares plummeting 5 percent, all but guaranteeing that Big Blue will open this morning at a new 52-week low. The broad averages were also getting hit, raising fears of a first-hour avalanche. At the very least, tech stocks are likely to get savaged for IBM’s shortcomings. But does bad news from a single corporate bellwether mean that all of the other techs are likely to disappoint?  The answer hardly matters, since, as we all know, survival in this game often comes down to racing a bunch of idiots to the fire escape. My guess is that, when the opening bell rings, the optimists will be in short supply. One final, technical note: If a hidden-pivot support at 84.89 fails to turn IBM around, then look out below.