ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
Puts Are Cheaper
Than Bass-Fishing
For edition of December 02, 2005
A Dow thrust above 11000 seems like a foregone conclusion, but even so, it’ll be tempting to try and impede it with some shorts if and when the big day arrives. We’ve taken a cautious approach so far whenever bucking the bullish tide, buying a few puts here, a few puts there, as certain favored trading vehicles approached promising hidden-pivot targets. Looking back at the stock market over the last twenty five years, though, most of you should have realized by now that buying put options is not exactly a surefire path to riches. But if you can control the urge to indulge your bearish suspicions extravagantly, with a little bit of luck you’ll wind up with a hobby far less costly than, say, bass fishing.
Owing to strong technical evidence that a memorable top is no more than weeks away, we’ve been somewhat less diligent lately about working both sides of the street. There was a time when we might just as easily have been long a stock we hate (i.e., Citigroup) as short it. These days, however, even stocks we like – Google and Apple, to name two – are getting harder and harder to buy at current levels. We recently made a quick $800 playing the bullish side of Apple, but truth to tell, by the time the stock reached its target, we’d all but depleted our store of good will toward iPod. As for Google, we see it as a great company in its adolescence. Even so, at $400+ per share, the stock cries out to be shorted, don’t you think?