Our hidden-pivot targeting has been extremely accurate lately, producing tradable swing points in gold and energy that worked out to the penny. In fact, recalling the targets we used this week to bottom-fish in March crude oil, Durban Roodeport Deep and Canyon Resource shares, the total error for all three issues was just a single penny. In Durban (DROOY), back in October, I’d projected an important low at $1.21 when the stock was still trading above $2.00 a share. DROOY fell steadily over the next four months, hitting a low of exactly $1.21 on Monday before leaping sharply higher. The stock closed at 1.47 yesterday, up 22% from the predicted 1.21 bottom in just three days. To those who acquired stock at the low, I advised taking profits on half the position yesterday, an action that would have effectively lowered the cost basis on the shares remaining to 95 cents.

We were similarly fortunate in Canyon Resources, for which I projected an important low at 82 cents three months ago with the stock trading around 1.38.  We established a tracking position on paper at 82 cents on Tuesday, and although CAU pounded on that number the next day, it never traded below it. Yesterday Canyon ran up to as high as 98 cents, nearly 20% above the forecast low. And in March crude, there was this advice tendered in Rick’s Picks a week ago, when crude was trading above $46:  “If the futures close lower today, they'll be signaling an impending move down to 44.61. That's a promising hidden-pivot support related to a minor cycle, so let's plan on bottom-fishing there with a stop-loss at 44.53.” In fact, March crude bottomed at exactly $44.60 on Wednesday (see chart below) before leaping to $46.70 yesterday. Not long before, with the futures trading 46.20 Thursday morning, I disseminated a 46.58 target and a 15-cent trailing stop that would have provided a graceful exit.

One stock that hasn’t cooperated so nicely is Beazer. Not that it has managed to elude us entirely. To the contrary, BZH topped last week within a dime of a 157.51 pivot where I’d suggested going short with a 20-cent stop-loss. But the next day, BZH drilled through this “ceiling,” topping at 169.50 before swooning nearly $7 on Wednesday and Thursday. This top came fairly close to our projected short-able peak at 170.25, but not quite close enough to get anyone short with the usual nickel-dime stop-loss.  Similarly, the mini-Russell contract has been acting more or less predictably, but not with penny precision. Perhaps whatever celestial influences have been making the Russell a smidgen squirrelly lately will abate in the days and weeks ahead?