Recent wrist surgery will constrain me from posting essays here over the next several weeks. Instead, I have increased the emphasis on identifying potentially profitable trades in stocks, options, commodities and mini-futures, and in providing detailed instructions for manevering in and out of these vehicles. My advice is geared not only toward short-term traders, but to swing traders and investors as well. A popular feature available to paid subscribers is the weekly Q&A session. Below are the fruits of one recent Q&A session. If this is the kind of information that could benefit you, please take advantage of our no-risk trial subscription by clicking here: https://www.clubcyrus.com/rickspicks/subscribe.php

(From Q&A session held during trading hours on June 22)

06/22/2005 15:31:31 20
$ Newmont Mining (39.43) From Kam S: "NEM update please." I looked at Newmont Monday night, Kam, thinking it was time to "do something" in Newmont, but I can't report that I found much to recommend. Technical signs look mildly bullish right now, wtih upside potential over the near term to around 40.85 (a hidden pivot). The "buy" trigger came at 39.29, but I wouldn't recommned the trade because the implied stop at 38.76 greatly exceeds our usual penny-ante risk threshold. If you're itching to trade the stock, though, try bidding 0.60 for a few September 42.50 calls (NEMIV), contingent on the stock trading 38.85 or higher, good through July 10.

06/22/2005 15:22:35 19
July Lean Hogs (68.12) "Can you give us a bottom-picking pivot for July Lean Hogs please? asks Roger H. The pickings look pretty lean, I'm sorry to say. Too-obvious support near 67, where hogs double-bottomed in May, looks like a non-starter, and a hidden-pivot support at 66.42 could pprove flimsy. If the July contract gets down there, though, I'd say give it a try -- very tightly stopped, of course. Incidentally, there's a more enticing pivot in the August contract -- at 64.50, just a smidgen below the so-far bottom at 64.65. Please note, however, that if it gives way, the next place August Lean Hogs could find traction would be at 63.25. That looks like a very promising spot to try bottom-fishing if you're still game.

06/22/2005 15:10:22 18
Smith & Wesson Holding (4.07) "I have been accumulating Smith & Wesson stock from $2.88. It has recently been making all-time highs in the low $4.00 range. I'm curious if your hidden pivot method could be of any use in situations where a stock is making all-time highs. Any specific advice on SWB?

Didn't see much news on this gun maker, other than a story about its opening of a firearms museum recently in Massachusetts. SWB's chart looks promising, although the stock's recent top 9 cents below a key hidden pivot resistance at 4.28 suggests it could be ready for a breather. However, if it can muster a two-day close above 4.28, or trade more than 4 cents above that pivot intraday, I'd rate the stock an odds-on shot to achieve a minimum 4.61 within 5-7 days. I am unable to provide a long-term target for the stock because it is still working on a very bullish impulse leg. However, once some sort of consolidation has occurred, the follow-through leg promises to push SWB at least to the mid-$5s.  As to your question about how hidden pivots can be used in instances where a stock is hitting new highs, one strategy I like very much is to buy puts when the stock hits a rally target. If the downside reaction from the pivot occurs as expected, the put profits can be used to reduce the cost basis of any additional shares purchased. This wouldn't work in SWB because there are no options on the stock. However, one could instead take partial profits at the target and re-purchase the stock as it completes a correction to a downside pivot.

06/22/2005 14:46:45 17
Options Without Spreads "Many subscribers may have multiple IRA accounts," writes Dale D. "With a working spouse, a couple of job changes, and two Roth IRAs, it's easy to end up with four accounts or more. Any chance you can identify more trades that don't require option spreads? Most IRA accounts don't allow these." I'll work on it, Dale. Legging into calendar spreading is the best way I've found to reduce the risk of options positions to zero, or close to it, but there are other tactics we could apply, most particularly taking partial profits and slightly-to-somewhat-more risk.

06/22/2005 14:42:27 16
Samex Mining Corp. (0.40) "A while back, I asked you to take a look at Samex Mining. You called a pivot bottom at 0.25, the actual low was .27, and now the stock appears to be on the rise So far, your call looks pretty good. Can you give me your updated opinion?"

Most gladly, Jon. Samex's recent stab higher created a bullish impulse leg that should lend buoyancy for at least the next few weeks. More immediately, however, stochastic influences on the daily chart have grown heavy, so I'd be cautious about buying the stock right now. On a purely mechanical basis, the stock would trigger a buy signal by rallying 3.6 cents from some low in the range .4458 (already achieved) and no lower than .3754. Upside potential from the entry point would be about 10 cents.

06/22/2005 14:33:36 15
Cardero Resources (2.33) Jay R. has asked for my thoughts on Cardero Resources. Nothing has changed since you asked about this stock last week. I wrote as follows:

"The stock doesn't look great, so I agree with your strategy of taking some profits while they're abundantly available. Cardero's recent breach of a hidden pivot support at 2.58 suggests it is on its way down to at least 2.13, but it could noodle around for weeks and weeks near 2.25, where visually obvious support exists. In any event, I wouldn't be too ambitious, since the failure of CDY to create a bullish impulse leg by surpassing the 3.15 peak recorded on April 22 suggests it lacks the energy to soar. I'd reconsider only if the stock closes for two consecutive weeks above 3.03, a long-term hidden-pivot. That would imply additional upside potential to as high as 4.67."

06/22/2005 14:29:12 14
$ July Cotton (48.15) When not riding the waves, Surfer Mark evidently has been watching the cotton grow: "Summer doldrums. Is it July or October cotton-pickin' time yet?"

Yes, Mark, but only as of this morning, when July cotton created a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart by slightly exceeding a minor peak at 49.21 recorded three weeks ago. A proper buy signal would come via a .61-cent rally from some low between here and no lower than 47.73. The initial stop-loss should be placed just beneath that low. Upside potential over the near-term would be to as high as 50.18. "How are you going to pole the high traverses at Bariloche without a wrist next month?" No sweat, Mark. I'll just attach a harness to my two boys.

06/22/2005 13:58:52 13
Research In Motion (78.69) "Just wondering if Research In Motion has done anything to change your assessment from two weeks ago." Today's manic leap has jump-started the stock, which could rally to as high as 88.41 this summer. First, though, it will have to get by a lesser hidden-pivot resistance at 79.65. If it does so easily -- say, within a day of first touching that number -- you can infer that the higher target has become an odds-on bet.

06/22/2005 13:51:21 12
Western Silver (9.07) "Sam" has asked for an update on Western Silver. The stock is right where it was last October, midway through its accustomed $7-$11 range. The intermediate-term outlook is bullish because of the strong impulse leg generated by early June's 9.90 high, but the stock could still correct to below the 8.62 bottom it made a week later before regaining traction. A decisive thrust past 10.04 would likely clinch a move up to the mid-$11s.

06/22/2005 13:29:56 11
$ Google Inc. (290.01) From Steve: "What's your latest targets for GOOG?" The stock recently pushed passed a hidden-pivot resistance at 291.52, topping at 292.32. That's not much of an overshoot, but my hunch is that it is sufficient to imply Google will achieve the next, 315.62. I'd suggest some profit-taking on the way up, since that number is likely to show significant stopping power. I've set an alert so that we can try shorting the stock if and when it gets there. Once GOOG has closed for two consecutive days above 291.52, I'd give it an 85% chance of reaching the higher pivot. By all means, please jot down the number 315.62, since it will allow you to dispense with the worthless opinions of all the bozos on Wall Street who keep raising their estimates for the stock.

06/22/2005 13:20:37 10
Fannie Mae (60.66) "I'd love to short Fannie Mae (and Beazer) but have been killed in the recent past by these stocks," writes TofuMan. "What should I do?" Just keep an eye on my hidden-pivot targets, TofuMan. It's no big trick to short these "killer stocks" without risking more than pocket change. The trick is to initiate trades only at promising swing points; to use very tight stops when we do; and to take partial profits as soon as possible. Using this strategy, we've made money shorting Beazer even when we were wrong about where a major top would form. Note that Fannie's recent top was predictable to within 16 cents. That's a short we probably would have missed, since I usually advise entry within a penny of these pivots. But I am sure there will be other such opportunities -- and I am with you in thinking that Fannie in particular is a stock that screams to be shorted. But only at the right price, so please be patient.

06/22/2005 13:02:28 9
$ Novagold Resources (7.64) Keith Y. has asked for an update on Novagold Resources. The stock is correcting a bullish impulse leg begun in mid-May and looks like it's setting up for a nice rally. However, it recently breached a Fibonacci-based support at 7.67, so I'd be cautious about buying at these levels. If you'll give me a holler when the stock rallies 48 cents from some as yet unrecorded low, I may be able to come up with a low-risk entry strategy. FYI, the nearest hidden-pivot support where you could try buying with a tight stop is 7.48.

06/22/2005 12:53:32 8
Tyco International (30.90) "Can you take another look at Tyco? Now that it has filled an earlier gap, I'm betting that it will resume its downtrend." I wouldn't bet the farm on it. The stock created a robustly bullish impulse leg earlier this year when it exceeded a 35.83 peak created in March 2002. That suggests that the decline that has occurred since is a consolidation for another surge. First, though, we should look for a rally, possibly to a Fibo-based resistance at 32.73, and then a decline to a hidden-pivot support at 28.31. That's where I'd look to buy the stock if it follows the scenario given above.

06/22/2005 12:42:48 7
A Profitable Trade "You mentioned a hidden pivot in gold near 412, so I bought some Goldcorp calls on the day that bullion prices neared 412, wsrites Luis C. "Today I sold the calls for a 200% gain. Thanks!" Your most welcome, Luis. Glad to have helped your timing.

Now I need a little help. Can you tell me what symbols to trade for the mini-Dow and the mini-S&P. I know that we are getting close to a tradeable top and want to be ready." My post immediately below should tell you what you need to know. When stocks are ripe for shorting I will signal. Until then, though, we may need to be very patient, since this summer already looks like it's going to be a very slow one for traders.

06/22/2005 12:34:20 6
What Are 'Minis'? "Pardon my ignorance," writes C. Erber, "but what are the mini-Dow, mini-S&P, and mini-Euro? Do they have symbols?"

Minis are downsized futures contracts created by the various exchanges to facilitate direct-access trading. These vehicles are not traded in a pit on an exchange, but rather electronically and round-the-clock, on platforms such as TradeStation, by traders like you and I all over the world.

The first such product to be introduced, by the CME, was the mini S&P, which has the root symbol ES. More recently, the E-mini Russell 2000 has become very popular. The September contract trades under the symbol ER2U05. There's also a mini-sized 30-Year T-Bond (YHU05), a mini 10-Year T-Note (TYU05) and quite a few others covering a wide variety of share indexes and commodities.

These contracts usually move in lock-step with the pit-traded contract, so targets for one are generally applicable to the other. One attractive feature of the minis is that real-time (i.e., undelayed) price information comes free from the exchanges. Another is low commissions for those who trade them. And yet another is that they level the playing field between the professional traders and at-home traders. Orders are executed on a first-come, first-served basis, so the big boys have no special edge.

06/22/2005 12:13:15 5
+ Cameco Corp. (43.09) Bobby E. is waxing bullish on uranium producer CCJ and wants to know whether there are any hidden-pivot entry points we can use to get aboard. Officially we still hold 100 shares that, because of earlier profit-taking on a larger position, have a built-in gain of $5,600 at $40 a share. The stock has been very good to us, so I'm as keen as you are to augment our holdings. It was a buy this morning at 43.34, stop 41.93, but that's a signal I would pass up, since there is $140 of initial risk per round lot -- far more than we are wont to accept. Let me ponder this for a while longer, Bobby. I'll be monitoring CCJ closely enough that we should be able to pick our spot. I'll look for an opportunity that will be suitable for all Rick's Picks subscribers.

06/22/2005 12:01:15 4
SBC Communications (23.86) "Could you take a look at SBC?" asks Carroll W. "Looks like a breakout from a long downtrend may be starting." If so, I can't detect it on the weekly chart (see illustration). At a minimum we'd need to see a 24.34 print, which would surpass a peak made in early April to create a weakly bullish impulse leg. But I wouldn't infer that the bear market had ended until such time as SBC breaches the 25.35 peak made in January.

06/22/2005 11:53:51 3
Walter Industries (47.12) "Can you find any hidden pivots in Walter Industries?" asks Ed M. Shares in this homebuilder conglomerate have recently exploded. I'd look for the rally to continue to at least 51.15, a hidden pivot, but be sure to take partial profits if WLT gets there, since the pullback could be nasty. Over the long haul, Walter looks like it could achieve 65.68, a hidden pivot that can serve as our bull-market target.

06/22/2005 11:43:13 2
September Yen (0.9259) Julie H. has warmed my cockles with this nice message: The stock market indices are boring, as you say. It's good to know, using your pivots, where they are likely to turn, but there's no need to spend much of your time and talent on them, as you are doing great on the things that actually move: individual stocks, commodities, and currencies. Your corn and beans pivots were fantastic. That said, I'd be interested in your most current thoughts about the yen, euro and cotton. Naturally I am looking forward to hearing about other stocks, commodities, etc. that your other subscribers ask about, too."

I'll tackle your first request, Julie -- the Japanese yen -- and come back to cotton and the euro later in the session if there's time.

I've reproduced a continuous weekly chart that puts the yen's six-month decline in proper perspective. The weakness is actually a correction in a bull market, and, as far as I can determine, the correction has further to go -- probably at least another 5-7 weeks of weakness. If so, we could look for an important low late in the summer around 0.8987. There is an additional hidden-pivot support at 0.9137 where a significant bounce is likely.

06/22/2005 11:24:50 1
$ Micron Technology (10.57) "What's your take on Micron Technology," asks Patrick S. "The stocks looks somewhat weak, recently falling from its 200 dma. I was looking to buy some near-terms puts on this stock, but with the recent market action I'm not sure if it's such a good idea. It's been stuck between 11 and 10.5 since the middle of May."

I'd stay away from the options unless you are at least 80% certain you can predict a major move in the stock within 4-6 days of when it occurs. The puts and calls are priced about right relative to the actual volatility of the underlying stock, so you'd need to correctly forecast a dramatic change in MU's behavior to have a prayer of profiting with options. But if your heart's desire is to gamble a few bucks here, try buying either stock or near-term call options with a tight stop-loss if and when MU falls to a promising hidden-pivot support at 9.93. And don't neglect to take partial profits if the bounce we should expect from that number -- my minimum downside objective for the moment -- occurs.