With crude prices stealing up on $50 once again and elections in Iraq just five days off, the bulls should be prepared to write this week off. For our part, we’ve been focusing on Dow and S&P targets somewhat below the market, attempting to bottom-fish hidden-pivot supports with very tight stops. They are not especially ambitious targets, just minor-cycle supports that ordinarily should be good for a nice pop in the first hour or two of the trading day. We must have plenty of company waiting for lower prices, though, because stocks have been giving up ground only grudgingly. In other words, despite rising oil quotes and escalating tensions in Iraq, investors are not exactly tripping over each other to get to the exits.

Mondays have been especially turgid in this way, and yesterday was as soporific an example as we’ve seen in a while. The 15-minute chart below shows how the E-mini S&P oscillated within a 5-point range for most of the day before finally taking the path of least resistance lower.  We had a bid in all day at 1159.25, but it went unfilled. Another bid in the mini-Dow awaited at 10371, and although it was hit when the futures were on their way to an intraday low at 10367, the print came too late in the session to be worth much.

 (Click on image to enlarge)

For those of you who crave action in the mining stocks, the recent focus on index futures must seem like we’re just biding our time. Not exactly. We’re simply trying to exploit whatever price movement exists, regardless of its pedigree or provenance. But much as I’d love to shout “Buy gold!” from the rooftops, I’m skeptical that this is the right time. My gut feeling is that the bear rally in the dollar still has a month or so to go before it runs out of steam. If correct, then we still have plenty of time to do some selective bottom-fishing in precious-metal shares. Meanwhile, you should try not to get too frazzled by false alarms such as the one posted to a chat group yesterday that imagined Newmont Mining was breaking out. Hardly. We’ve got a wee long position in NEM options that cost us small change, but that’s probably about as much as we should be willing to gamble on Newmont and other miners at the moment.