ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
An Algorithmic
Frankenstein...
For edition of September 13, 2006
Judging from the way stocks have been getting short-squeezed this week, traders must have been loaded to the gills with September put options. My technically savvy friend Tom Tankka pointed this out to me, along with the sad observation that our mutual friends from the trading world have been dropping like flies, so very challenging is the current investment environment. It is at times like this that I prefer to tune out what everyone “thinks” and simply look at the charts. And so I have, enabling me to identify a very promising rally target for the Dow Industrials that can help take some of the guesswork and pain out of the game.
Moreover, in yesterday’s Touts I proffered a downside target for Newmont Mining that has the potential to yield the first low-risk buying opportunity in the stock since May of 2005. It was complemented in yesterday’s chat room by a projection for December Gold that is not apt to please the hard-money crowd but which most surely has their best interests at heart. I never promised I would break it to you gently, and although I remain a long-term bull on gold, I will never, ever become a cheerleader for the stuff unless the technical evidence demands it.
Concerning Wall Street’s ongoing dog-and-pony show, getting a handle on things is not rocket science, not as long as one does not open the door even a crack to intuition or knowledge. Both appear useless at the moment, since the stock market is obviously too pumped up on global funny money to respond in a predictable way to negative economic stimuli, even such stimuli as hits like an electrical jolt to the testicles. Does the stock market know there’s a spectacular housing bust gathering momentum – one that could conceivably usher in a Second Great Depression? You would never guess that’s so watching stocks rise steadily yesterday, feeding on bear carcass the whole way up.
The short-squeeze was catalyzed by exactly the kind of news that has triggered a dozen such rallies in the recent past: Traders awakened to news of an attack by “militants” on the U.S. embassy in Damascus. Word of the attack evidently was sufficient to roil Asian and European markets overnight. But as we’ve seen so many times before – in Iraq, in Lebanon, in Afghanistan, in Spain, in London, and in New York – the moment that it dawned on investors that the world had not ended, there was only one possible response: “Buy ‘em!”
Such is the simple-minded calculus of a stock market that long ago ceased to attract the interest of investors and which has since yielded itself up to the whimsical flailing and lurching of an algorithmic Frankenstein. Stocks are in the hands of “players” now, there to remain until some hideous, wholly unpredictable event so completely re-shapes our vision of the future that even Wall Street’s Masters of the Universe will start their day retching into a toilet.
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Vancouver Seminar
Registration forms for this October 28-29 event at the Fairmont Waterfront will go out within the next ten days, so if you haven’t yet let me know of your interest in attending, please do so as soon as possible by clicking here. Here are some further details:
FAQ
When will the Hidden Pivot Seminar be held?
There are four seminars scheduled over the next four months, all on weekends. The first will be in New York City on October 14-15; the second, in Vancouver on October 28-29; the third, in San Francisco on November 11-12; and the last, in Sydney on December 2-3.
The class takes two full days, then?
Yes, from 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday. After an on-site brunch the second day, the remaining hours will be devoted to an informal Q&A session.
Can I take the course online?
We do not offer an online seminar at this time, but this may change if demand warrants it.
Is the seminar open to those who do not subscribe to your Rick’s Picks advisory service?
The course is open to subscribers and non-subscribers alike. However, I encourage all seminar students to subscribe to Rick’s Picks, if only for a month or two, so that they can become familiar with my methods and trading style. Also, the archives and educational pages offer a useful resource for learning about my proprietary methods prior to the seminar.
How can I sign up for the seminar?
You can request a registration form by clicking on the blue hypertext line under “Last Call!” above.
How much does the seminar cost?
Tuition for the two-day event is $1,500, This covers course materials and extensive post-grad mentoring in a real-time chat-room held during market hours.
When is the money due?
A deposit of $300 is due with the registration form. $100 of it would be non-refundable, and the remaining $200 would become non-refundable six weeks prior to the session.
How about the remaining balance of $1,200?
It would be payable by two weeks prior to the session and would be refundable. A check is preferred, but you will be able to use a credit card for an additional administrative fee of $50.
What will I learn?
The goal of the course is to enable students to master the Hidden Pivot method and to use it to forecast price reversals at least as accurately as experts who do it for a living. In addition, you will learn to use some basic risk management strategies and to leverage swing points with puts and calls. If you’re interested in what my subscribers have said about hidden pivots, click here.
Can someone who knows little about trading or technical analysis benefit from the seminar?
Although many professionals have taken the course, it is an ideal place for the novice to start, since it offers a relatively simple, stand-alone method of forecasting and trading. No prior trading experience or knowledge is required.
