ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
Bullion Bargains
Beat GOOG-Lust
For edition of March 02, 2006
From a hidden-pivot standpoint, a relapse to exactly 345.35 seems as likely for Google as an early-March snowstorm in North Dakota. Not that I would try to discourage anyone from thinking GOOG might at some point return to bargain levels. But it ain’t there yet, not as far as I’m concerned, and although the premier Web searchmeister’s capitalization has been shaved by nearly 30 percent since peaking in mid-January, I would caution against rushing in right now to re-acquire the stock for the long haul.
(Click to enlarge)
So what might this imply for the broad averages over the near term? While it’s hard to imagine GOOG taking such a hit without dragging down the indexes of which it is a component, the QQQs (for one) looked like no worse than an even bet to maintain altitude for at least the next day or two. Our best shot in any event may lie in the precious-metals sector. Bullion futures in particular have been moving nicely to-target, tracing out a recuperative pattern that we expect will reward gold bugs’ patience with new price highs yet again. We’ll look closely at possible opportunities in some of our favorites, including Newmont, Golden Star Resources, and Gold Fields Ltd., so stay tuned.
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Disturbing Pictures
From our technically astute friend Tom Tankka, here are two charts that show Big Trouble brewing, even if it is not likely to precipitate out in mere days. The first shows an Industrial Average that has been moving higher for four months even as MACD has declined. It seems highly improbable that this glaring divergence will be resolved in favor of the bulls. The second chart shows a picture-perfect head-and-shoulders pattern taking shape in the NDX. If it continues to add symmetry, a hellish drop could be expected in about six to eight weeks.
(Click on charts to enlarge)
