We’ve had our crosshairs trained on a 13045 Dow target since late September, convinced the blue chip average would get there come hell or high water. Now, a similarly outlandish target has emerged in Citi, until recently somewhat of a laggard in an otherwise very strong banking sector. Our precise objective for the stock lies at 64.73, a Hidden Pivot that’s about 9 dollars above yesterday’s settlement price. In percentage terms, Citi would need to rise by about 17% to achieve its goal. That compares with a rally of just 5% in the Dow to fulfill its 13045 projection.

(Click on chart to enlarge)

I mention these two targets because, taken together, they can help us pinpoint a possible top in the nearly four-year-old bull market. Both are sufficiently important to imply that any downturn from either would likely mark the beginning of a correction of at least intermediate-term importance. That would imply a pullback of at least four to six weeks’ duration, although any such weakness could conceivably turn out to be the first leg of a severe and protracted bear market.

More immediately, we can infer with confidence that the bull market is in no danger of running out of steam, since it seems highly unlikely that it would end with a key bellwether like Citi lying at such a distance from a clear and important price objective. And clear it is: I estimate that Citi has at least a 70% chance of reaching the target – about the same odds I’d give for the Dow’s achieving 13045. If they were to get there more or less simultaneously, that would not only confirm the importance of the top, it would also provide us with the means to recognize and time it perfectly. In this scenario, Citi would need to rise about three times as fast as the DJIA in percentage terms. But this is hardly inconceivable, given the steepening of its rise lately into a parabolic curve on the daily and weekly charts.

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London Seminar

I’ve had some requests to give a Hidden Pivot seminar in London, but not quite enough yet to make the trip worthwhile. If you’d be interested in attending a two-day class there, probably sometime in the spring of 2007, please let me know via e-mail, including your contact information.