ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
'Dreaded Day'
Has Arrived
For edition of August 22, 2006
August 22 has been widely advertised as a date to be feared on the Islamic calendar. It corresponds to the 27th day of the month of Rajab, when the prophet Muhammad is said to have ascended to heaven on the winged horse Buraq. Would Islamic terrorists attempt to commemorate such an occasion with a spectacular attack on the West? Let’s hope not. But it may be comforting to recall in the meantime that rarely if ever have well-advertised predictions of disaster panned out. That’s probably true in spades where the stock market is concerned. As any investor with a long memory could attest, when some celebrated swami says the stock market is going to crash on a particular day, it’s a safe bet that it will turn out to be an exceptionally dull session on Wall Street.
In this case, however, the celebrated swami is not a prognosticator but an eminent Islamic scholar, Bernard Lewis, and his reputation is impeccable. We should note as well that Prof. Lewis was not predicting a terror-inspired catastrophe, but simply drawing our attention to the fact that Iran’s president had said he would respond by August 22 to a U.S. ultimatum on nuclear development. A coincidence? Probably not. But Ahmadinejad has nevertheless left open the possibility that Iran will rebuke the ultimatum not with an act of terror, but with a verbal rejection that closes the door on any further discussion.
Perilous Status Quo
That would hardly resolve the issue, of course. While Europe, ex-Britain, would likely continue to pretend that Iran is processing weapons-grade fuel for peaceful purposes, President Bush has already stated unequivocally that America will not stand idly by while the Iranian nuclear program evolves. But unless Mr. Bush is able to pull together a coalition of nations that shares his sense of urgency, what, short of declaring war, might the U.S. do? Answer: Very little. Regarding August 22, my guess is that Iran will use the day symbolically, not to kill and maim Infidels but to tell America to piss off. To the extent that the war between Israel and Hezbollah has demonstrated that a pre-emptive strike against Iran by land and/or air would be very risky and quite possibly ineffectual, we can expect life to simply go on after August 22. A perilous status quo presumably would obtain until the – inevitable? -- day when Iran chooses to demonstrate its nuclear prowess.
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NYC Seminar: Last Call!
There is still room for a few more students, since I’ve yet to receive confirmations from a number of those who said they would like to attend the Hidden Pivot Seminar, slated for October 14-15 in New York City. If you would like me to reserve a place for you, please let me know by requesting a registration form at this link. Meanwhile, here’s a FAQ to help the decision along:
Seminar FAQ
When will the Hidden Pivot Seminar be held?
There are four seminars scheduled over the next four months, all on weekends. The first will be in New York City on October 14-15; the second, in Vancouver on October 28-29; the third, in San Francisco on November 11-12; and the last, in Sydney on December 2-3.
The class takes two full days, then?
Yes, from 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday. After an on-site brunch the second day, the remaining hours will be devoted to an informal Q&A session.
Can I take the course online?
We do not offer an online seminar at this time, but this may change if demand warrants it.
Is the seminar open to those who do not subscribe to your Rick’s Picks advisory service?
The course is open to subscribers and non-subscribers alike. However, I encourage all seminar students to subscribe to Rick’s Picks, if only for a month or two, so that they can become familiar with my methods and trading style. Also, the archives and educational pages offer a useful resource for learning about my proprietary methods prior to the seminar.
How can I sign up for the seminar?
You can request a registration form by clicking on the blue hypertext line under “Last Call!” above.
How much does the seminar cost?
Tuition for the two-day event is $1,500, This covers course materials and extensive post-grad mentoring in a real-time chat-room held during market hours.
When is the money due?
A deposit of $300 is due with the registration form. $100 of it would be non-refundable, and the remaining $200 would become non-refundable six weeks prior to the session.
How about the remaining balance of $1,200?
It would be payable by two weeks prior to the session and would be refundable. A check is preferred, but you will be able to use a credit card for an additional administrative fee of $50.
What will I learn?
The goal of the course is to enable students to master the Hidden Pivot method and to use it to forecast price reversals at least as accurately as experts who do it for a living. In addition, you will learn to use some basic risk management strategies and to leverage swing points with puts and calls. If you’re interested in what my subscribers have said about hidden pivots, click here.
Can someone who knows little about trading or technical analysis benefit from the seminar?
Although many professionals have taken the course, it is an ideal place for the novice to start, since it offers a relatively simple, stand-alone method of forecasting and trading. No prior trading experience or knowledge is required.