A pen-pal of mine has seized on a source of frustration that continues to vex many of us. To wit, gold and bullion shares sell off savagely in a bull market while the broad stock market rarely fall for more than an hour or two in the midst of a secular bear. “I don’t think there’s any doubt that the market is ready to [collapse],” he writes. “The violence of the sell-off in gold shares indicates that the landscape has changed. Take a look at the chart of Gold Fields Ltd. for the past 5 days. When have you ever seen a stock gap down five days in a row without filling any of the gaps? [Actually, we can’t recall any such instance. Here’s the chart, which shows just how hard GFI shares have been brutalized in the last week]:

(Click on chart to enlarge)

“That is typical of the entire gold bull. There is much more concern about getting out than getting in, while the stock market can't sell off more than 30 points without a multi-hour attempt to move up. It is quite astounding. Also, ‘tis the season for good sell-offs. I did buy some puts this morning. It's a low risk try, in my opinion.”

The season for "good" sell-offs, indeed. We awaken each morning wondering if we will be able to resist the temptation to plow every cent we can beg, borrow or steal into cheap put options. Fortunately, it’s much harder to borrow a dime for this purpose than a dollar to buy a big Chevy. Anyone out there want to trade some put options for a low-mileage Yukon?  

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Un-Cool Origami

The cat’s out of the bag: Microsoft’s top-secret Origami is actually an “ultra-portable” computer. Bill Gates evidently thinks millions of us will want one, but I’m betting it’ll be more like tens of thousands, and that, as a result, this gadget will go the way of Apple’s tablet computer, the Newton.

Gates will be on hand tomorrow at a German trade show to introduce the thing, but judging from the one that was displayed in close-up on the evening news, the committee that designed it lacks Steve Jobs’ flair for creating “cool”. Actually, this $1,000 contraption looks more like the prize you’d expect to find in a family-size box of CrackerJack. Soccer moms might think it’s hip, but an iPod category-killer it ain’t. You read it here first.