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Grand Fenwick
Duchy Attacks

For edition of June 05, 2006


The denizens of Grand Fenwick laid siege Friday after I published "their" list of news stories about the coming housing bust. The list evidently was compiled by bloggers at patrick.net, but it came to me in the form of an e-mail from someone who identified himself only as “Martin” and using the address unlisted@att.net. Although none of the aggrieved bloggers threatened to do a Theo Van Gogh on me for "theft" of "intellectual property," there was a lot of hissing and clucking in their messages, which tersely admonished me. I have no apologies to make, but I can nonetheless recommend http://patrick.net to you without qualm, since it provides some interesting and fairly detailed information pertaining to the coming crash.  The emphasis is on Bay Area properties – and what better region to monitor if you are looking for early signs of the coast-to-coast bust?

 

(Click on image to enlarge)

 

The morning was busy otherwise, since a recommendation I’d made to buy June 50 Citi puts came within a hair of being filled – close enough, actually, that I had to assume that at least some subscribers would have been filled on the order. And so they were, The stock rose on the day, but we’d bid the puts so tight-fistedly that we actually made money exiting them within an hour of purchase. I heard from two subscribers who paid the suggested 0.50 and were able to dump them for 0.60, based on the bulletin I put out early in the session. The profit after commissions was nothing to brag about – maybe $35 or so – but that’s still enough to take the missus to lunch, provided she doesn’t go overboard on the Beluga.

 

Yesterday being a Friday two weeks before an expiration, I had expected the puts to trade down to 0.40 or 0.45 by day’s end, provided Citi hung out near the $50 strike. In fact, 0.50 (what we paid for them) was the low of the day, and there was a firm 0.50 bid on the close with the stock changing hands at 50.14. This suggests that the market makers are not overly eager to give these puts away. Usually, the naked selling of out-of-the money puts a week or two before expiration is considered by professionals to be a reliable source of free money. Do they perhaps know something?

 

There was another recommendation in Friday’s Touts, to short the mini-Dow at 11336, and although I’d have bet a shot-and-a-beer that it would be reached exactly, the actual intraday high was only 11322. It is usually a sign of impending weakness if a rally reverses without achieving so modest a hidden-pivot target. However, in this case we’ll give the undecideds the benefit of the doubt when next week begins, since they seem to be ruling the market these days – with a pot-metal fist.

 

Have a great weekend. My eighth grader is in a lacrosse tournament that I’m looking forward to. The team had a rotten record in 2005, but so many players grew by a foot since last spring that they are a good wild-card prospect to make the finals.

  

***

Oz Seminar a ‘Go”

 

The hidden pivot seminar in Sydney, Australia is a definite, since no fewer than fifteen of you have told me you’ll be there. New York is first, though, in early October, and it will be a no-frills version of the course that I gave in Denver. After that there will probably be just one more session offered – in San Francisco, late in 2006 or early 2007 -- but that would be the last for a long while. If you would like to attend any of these sessions, please let me know asap via e-mail.  The course includes post-grad mentoring in a chat room forum.





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