The denizens of Grand Fenwick laid siege Friday after I published "their" list of news stories about the coming housing bust. The list evidently was compiled by bloggers at
The morning was busy otherwise, since a recommendation I’d made to buy June 50 Citi puts came within a hair of being filled – close enough, actually, that I had to assume that at least some subscribers would have been filled on the order. And so they were, The stock rose on the day, but we’d bid the puts so tight-fistedly that we actually made money exiting them within an hour of purchase. I heard from two subscribers who paid the suggested 0.50 and were able to dump them for 0.60, based on the bulletin I put out early in the session. The profit after commissions was nothing to brag about – maybe $35 or so – but that’s still enough to take the missus to lunch, provided she doesn’t go overboard on the Beluga.
Yesterday being a Friday two weeks before an expiration, I had expected the puts to trade down to 0.40 or 0.45 by day’s end, provided Citi hung out near the $50 strike. In fact, 0.50 (what we paid for them) was the low of the day, and there was a firm 0.50 bid on the close with the stock changing hands at 50.14. This suggests that the market makers are not overly eager to give these puts away. Usually, the naked selling of out-of-the money puts a week or two before expiration is considered by professionals to be a reliable source of free money. Do they perhaps know something?
There was another recommendation in Friday’s Touts, to short the mini-Dow at 11336, and although I’d have bet a shot-and-a-beer that it would be reached exactly, the actual intraday high was only 11322. It is usually a sign of impending weakness if a rally reverses without achieving so modest a hidden-pivot target. However, in this case we’ll give the undecideds the benefit of the doubt when next week begins, since they seem to be ruling the market these days – with a pot-metal fist.
Have a great weekend. My eighth grader is in a lacrosse tournament that I’m looking forward to. The team had a rotten record in 2005, but so many players grew by a foot since last spring that they are a good wild-card prospect to make the finals.