October 10th, 2006 Price: Subscribe »

ARCHIVED COMMENTARY

“Housing Prices May Become More Volatile”. Where do they dig these stories up? The headline, lifted from the latest edition of The Wall Street Journal, is a real classic of the genre in the Sugar-Coated News category. We infer from the word “volatile” that in the years to come, home prices can be expected to both rise and fall at least somewhat more capriciously than usual. Ah, would that we could rely on it. In fact, we expect, not ups and downs, but rather a steady erosion of real estate prices for at least the next decade, which is how long it will take, probably, for K-Wave deflation to run its course.

 

The soft-edged report, prepared by four Federal Reserve economists, notes that “the housing market is remarkably similar to stock and bond markets” to the extent “expected future real return to housing is the primary determinant of the trend and variance of rent-price ratios.” Although that sounds about right, we would argue that the well-leveraged, relatively riskless returns to be had from mortgage paper in recent years have driven a housing boom to excesses unrelated to such subtle factors as trend-and-variance of rent/price ratios. In fact, easy credit such as we’ve enjoyed for more than a decade has led to a housing boom that makes no economic sense whatsoever.

 

Buyers Hunker Down

 

Now, with interest rates on the rise and the Fed constrained from easing because it could destroy the dollar, we wonder what unforeseen factor(s) could conceivably cause housing prices to become “volatile”  -- i.e., prone to gyrate both up and down. We see only a steadily weakening market in which the gap between buyers and sellers will continue to widen, inventory to burgeon, and the number of transactions to slow precipitously. We also believe that today’s sellers are delusional, believing as they do that the current downturn will prove to be just another blip in a market that only rises over time. Will buyers get second wind and put some volatility into the market, as the Fed report suggests? We think not. More likely is that would-be buyers will continue to hunker down, waiting for an increasingly significant break in prices. When it comes, as it surely must, don’t expect the U.S. economy to be in the kind of shape that is conducive to a booming real estate market.

 

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Traders’ Chat Room

 

Rick’s Picks has added a chat room to the growing list of services and features available to subscribers at no extra cost. If you’re an active trader looking for potentially profitable ideas and precise swing points in real time, check it out! Take a one-month trial subscription to Rick’s Picks and you will gain instant access to this valuable service and meet some Hidden Pivot Seminar grads who are well on their way toward achieving success. 

 

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NYC Seminar:  Last Call!

 

There is still room for a few more students, since I’ve yet to receive confirmations from  a number of those who said they would like to attend the Hidden Pivot Seminar, slated for October 14-15 in New York City. If you would like me to reserve a place for you, please let me know by requesting a registration form at this link.  Meanwhile, here’s a FAQ to help the decision along:

 

 

Seminar FAQ

 

 

When will the Hidden Pivot Seminar be held?

There are four seminars scheduled over the next four months, all on weekends. The first will be in New York City on October 14-15; the second, in Vancouver on October 28-29; the third, in San Francisco on November 11-12; and the last, in Sydney on December 2-3.

 

 

The class takes two full days, then?

Yes, from 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday. After an on-site brunch the second day, the remaining hours will be devoted to an informal Q&A session.

 

 

Can I take the course online?

We do not offer an online seminar at this time, but this may change if demand warrants it.

 

 

Is the seminar open to those who do not subscribe to your Rick’s Picks advisory service?

The course is open to subscribers and non-subscribers alike. However, I encourage all seminar students to subscribe to Rick’s Picks, if only for a month or two, so that they can become familiar with my methods and trading style. Also, the archives and educational pages offer a useful resource for learning about my proprietary methods prior to the seminar.

 

 

How can I sign up for the seminar?

You can request a registration form by clicking on the blue hypertext line under “Last Call!” above.

 

 

How much does the seminar cost?

Tuition for the two-day event is $1,500, This covers course materials and extensive post-grad mentoring in a real-time chat-room held during market hours.

 

 

When is the money due?

A deposit of $300 is due with the registration form. $100 of it would be non-refundable, and the remaining $200 would become non-refundable six weeks prior to the session. 

 

 

How about the remaining balance of $1,200?

It would be payable by two weeks prior to the session and would be refundable. A check is preferred, but you will be able to use a credit card for an additional administrative fee of $50.

 

 

What will I learn?

The goal of the course is to enable students to master the Hidden Pivot method and to use it to forecast price reversals at least as accurately as experts who do it for a living. In addition, you will learn to use some basic risk management strategies and to leverage swing points with puts and calls. If you’re interested in what my subscribers have said about hidden pivots, click here.

 

 

Can someone who knows little about trading or technical analysis benefit from the seminar?

Although many professionals have taken the course, it is an ideal place for the novice to start, since it offers a relatively simple, stand-alone method of forecasting and trading.  No prior trading experience or knowledge is required.