You know it’s a dull week when the dangers of second-hand smoke get top billing on the evening news. On Wall Street the usual “jitters” set in a day before the Fed was to announce its seventeenth rate hike in two years. To say that investors have been “jittery” about this implies only that they have been reluctant to push stocks one way or the other for more than a few hours. Yesterday was a case in point – a day that began with moderate weakness and ended with moderate strength. What it suggests is that the 25-basis-point rate hike that most observers expect is likely to happen, and no surprises.

We waxed bullish here earlier in the week about the prospect of a bigger-than-expected boost of 50 basis points. That would have signaled a decisive end to the tightening begun almost exactly two years ago, even if there is reason to suspect that the central bank no longer has absolute control over such things. As we pointed out here yesterday, a global trend toward tightening in Asia and Europe has put pressure on the Fed to support the dollar with higher interest rates. It couldn’t happen at a worse time for the U.S., since housing bubbles are starting to deflate around the country even as real wage growth continues to stagnate amidst rising consumer prices. It is a mystery why household consumption should have held up for as long as it has, since higher real rates on property loans should have snuffed America’s shopping binge months ago. Clearly we are running on fumes, even if nearly every dismal scientists quoted in the newspapers seems to believe the economy is in danger of “overheating.” Actually, a Martian invasion poses more of a threat.

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Vancouver Seminar a ‘Go’

The Hidden Pivot Seminar in Vancouver is a definite “go” for the last weekend in October, so please let me know via-email  if you’re interested in attending. The event is being produced by a long-time Rick’s Picks reader who wants to introduce his investment clients to my technical methods.

The two-day class is geared to teaching traders of all skill levels the rudiments of my proprietary Hidden Pivot System. Post-grad mentoring in a chat-room is included so that students can master the techniques learned in the classroom in a real-time setting.

Dates are not yet firm for seminars to be held in San Francisco and Sydney, Australia, but it looks like they will take place either in November 2006 or February 2007. Both classes are filling up, so let me know soon if you’d like to attend.