ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
Iran, Hezbollah
And The Bomb
For edition of July 27, 2006
To understand how high the stakes are in the battle between Israel and Hezbollah, I’d suggest reading this analysis, published in the London Sunday Times: “God’s army has plans to run the whole Middle East.” The article is long, so here’s a key passage for those who would rather cut to the chase:
“If the pincer war against Israel is won, Iran would be able to expand its zone of influence, already taking shape in Iraq and assured in Syria, to take in Lebanon and Gaza. This would be the first time since the 7th century that Persian power has extended so far to the west.
“The strategy is high risk. If the Israelis manage to crush Hamas and destroy Hezbollah’s military machine, Iran’s influence will diminish massively. Defeat could revive an internal Hezbollah debate between those who continue to support a total and exclusive alliance with Iran until the infidel, led by America, is driven out of the Middle East and those who want Hezbollah to distance itself from Tehran and emphasise its Lebanese identity.”
Relocate the Jews?
There are undoubtedly those who believe that if Israel were to simply vanish from the map it would pacify the Middle East and reduce America’s image problem to manageable size. But would it? Let’s suppose the U.S. were to offer Israelis a new homeland in, say, coastal Texas, or in Southern California. Within hours of the last Jew’s departure from Israel, followers of Hezbollah and Hamas, along with most of the Arab world, would be dancing in the streets.
But does anyone really believe that the terrorists would finally be at peace with the civilized world? Of course not. Emboldened by their tactical defeat of Great Satan and Little Satan, the Iranians would undoubtedly ramp up their campaign to dominate the Middle East, first by turning up the heat in Iraq. Then, with the help of Islamist allies, they would try to choke off America’s energy supplies, simply because it would be so very easy to do so. Finally, they would begin a campaign of terror against American and “Zionist” businesses around the world.
A Big Stick
If this scenario sounds even the least bit farfetched, you must be living on another planet. Iran has shown itself capable of fomenting mayhem on a global scale without even getting its hands dirty. Imagine how much more successful they'll be once they have a nuclear bomb to back up their threats.
In the aftermath of Hezbollah’s unprovoked attack on Israel, whatever it brings, President Bush undoubtedly will find it much easier to convince world leaders that Iran cannot be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. But who will have the guts to stop them? The obvious answer – perhaps the only answer – is Israel, the country with the most to lose, at least immediately. But we shouldn’t kid ourselves that this is Israel’s battle to fight alone. Iran will continue to develop nuclear weapons no matter what the outcome of the war between Hezbollah and Israel. Ultimately, and regardless of whether Hezbollah defeats Israel, an A-bomb in Iranian hands is more likely to lead to a Third World War that just about anything else that could be imagined.