ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
Is the Market
Unshortable?
For edition of August 31, 2006
I tried lowering the bar yesterday to see if it might help buyers meet our very modest rally expectations, but even that didn’t work. We were looking for the Mini-S&P to choke, wheeze, gasp or otherwise struggle its way up to 1309,00, a Hidden Pivot that promised to reward shorts with a quick payoff and relatively little risk. It lay a mere point-and-a-half above the previous day’s high and just 4.25 point above the most recent settlement price, so we weren’t really asking for much. Alas, the futures topped at exactly 1308.75, providing a demonstration of coitus interruptus (or “getting off at Redfern,” as our subscribers from Oz might say) that will have left traders lusting for yet more abuse when stocks open this morning.
From a Hidden Pivot perspective, the broad average weren’t supposed to just noodle around yesterday. After all, they’d received a good goosing from panicky shorts the previous day, generating the kind of impulse leg that usually begets an equally impressive follow-through. Not this time though, and we can only infer from the market’s ensuing, nervous scuddle sideways that traders weren’t quite short enough to deliver the push it will take to knock stocks from their coma-inducing range.
Don’t Blame Bears
Don’t blame the bears, though, since the ones who have been around for a while know in their minds, if not in their hearts, that any market as tempting to short as this one is out to dismember risk-takers. “You can’t be short this market” is what I keep hearing from guys who share my colossal skepticism toward Dow 11000. With recession odds growing so compelling that even some of CNBC’s world-class permabulls might think twice about betting the “ pass” line, we should expect the stock market to be dropping like a stone. It is not, though -- not by a longshot -- and we therefore can only counsel patience to those who believe a quick thousand-point drop in the Dow would be as right as rain.
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Seminar Freebies
Remaining seats are going fast for the Hidden Pivot Seminar slated for October 14-15 in a conference facility off Central Park West. If you would like me to reserve a place for you, please let me know by requesting a registration form at this link. Meanwhile, those of you with registration forms already in hand should get them back to me as soon as possible, since everyone who is completely paid up by mid-September will receive snazzy Rick’s Picks polo shirts and a $125 Hidden Pivot calculator free of charge. Here’s a FAQ to speed your decision along:
FAQ
When will the Hidden Pivot Seminar be held?
There are four seminars scheduled over the next four months, all on weekends. The first will be in New York City on October 14-15; the second, in Vancouver on October 28-29; the third, in San Francisco on November 11-12; and the last, in Sydney on December 2-3.
The class takes two full days, then?
Yes, from 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday. After an on-site brunch the second day, the remaining hours will be devoted to an informal Q&A session.
Can I take the course online?
We do not offer an online seminar at this time, but this may change if demand warrants it.
Is the seminar open to those who do not subscribe to your Rick’s Picks advisory service?
The course is open to subscribers and non-subscribers alike. However, I encourage all seminar students to subscribe to Rick’s Picks, if only for a month or two, so that they can become familiar with my methods and trading style. Also, the archives and educational pages offer a useful resource for learning about my proprietary methods prior to the seminar.
How can I sign up for the seminar?
You can request a registration form by clicking on the blue hypertext line under “Last Call!” above.
How much does the seminar cost?
Tuition for the two-day event is $1,500, This covers course materials and extensive post-grad mentoring in a real-time chat-room held during market hours.
When is the money due?
A deposit of $300 is due with the registration form. $100 of it would be non-refundable, and the remaining $200 would become non-refundable six weeks prior to the session.
How about the remaining balance of $1,200?
It would be payable by two weeks prior to the session and would be refundable. A check is preferred, but you will be able to use a credit card for an additional administrative fee of $50.
What will I learn?
The goal of the course is to enable students to master the Hidden Pivot method and to use it to forecast price reversals at least as accurately as experts who do it for a living. In addition, you will learn to use some basic risk management strategies and to leverage swing points with puts and calls. If you’re interested in what my subscribers have said about hidden pivots, click here.
Can someone who knows little about trading or technical analysis benefit from the seminar?
Although many professionals have taken the course, it is an ideal place for the novice to start, since it offers a relatively simple, stand-alone method of forecasting and trading. No prior trading experience or knowledge is required.