I had flagged a hidden-pivot support at 117^19 as a potentially important turning point for the beleaguered June 30-Year Treasury Bond futures, but sellers demolished it on Thursday, telegraphing a strong likelihood of still higher yields in the weeks and perhaps months ahead. The June CBOT contract had already traded as low as 117^17, slightly beneath the advertised turnaround pivot, but the two-tick overshoot was not sufficient to seem threatening at the time.  On Thursday, however, just ahead of the three-day weekend, sellers pushed the futures contract decisively lower, to an intraday bottom of 106^30. A few ticks below 117^17 probably wouldn’t have made much difference, but this breach was fully 18 ticks, or more than a half point. It is akin to the groundhog seeing his shadow, and we should therefore brace for higher yields well into May, at least.

If this forecast proves correct, it implies that an already weak housing sector is likely to take a turn for the worse just as the real estate sector is entering its slow season. It also suggests that the precious-metals market could cool down some, since the dollar would presumably strengthen on higher yields for U.S. debt.

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Of course, it goes without saying that stock-market investors on Thursday acted blithely unconcerned about the renewed upward pressure on yields. The Dow finished up slightly on the day, oblivious to the real world as always. Perhaps Wall Street is counting on a last-ditch hidden-pivot  support at 106^13, to save the day? That’s a level that can be bottom-fished with a tight stop-loss, but I cannot guarantee that the anticipated bounce will be the one that sets America’s housing-and-refi economy on yet another life-sustaining binge.