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ARCHIVED COMMENTARY

Managing Risk
In Gold Futures

For edition of October 02, 2006


The chat room at Rick’s Picks continues to be a great place to hang out for anyone wanting to keep close tabs on bullion and precious-metal shares intraday, or to manage the risk in either.  Consider the following snippet, reproduced almost exactly as it appeared on the Web site. (Note: All names have been changed for reasons of privacy.)  The dialogue was posted to the chat room shortly after 11 a.m. Eastern. Gold was trading slightly north of $601, having fallen sharply from an opening that ranged as high as $607.50:

 

(Click on either image to enlarge)

 

 

 Now check out the chart:

 

 

 

An Australian in the room, trading at the bedtime end of his day, announced that he was filled at 599.60, using a stop-loss at 599.10 (!) -- so tight that an outside observer might have chastised him for breaking a conventional rule: “Give yourself some room!” But in this case, the microscopic, 50-cent stop-loss proved to be more than enough, since the actual low was just 10 cents (one tick) below where the Oz trader said he’d gotten in. He announced that he was raising his stop-loss to break-even when Gold started to move higher, and then he and another trader posted that they had exited intraday, presumably with a profit.  A third trader said he had been short the December Gold futures but covered and went long three contracts at the very bottom. “I will tell everyone I know who trades,” he promised.

 

Some Caveats

 

Of course, these apparent successes offer no guarantee that things will go anywhere near as well for Rick’s Picks chat-room traders in the future. And no matter how accurate the forecasts, there will always be substantial risk connected with trading futures contracts and other vehicles under discussion, including stocks, options and indexes. To be sure, yesterday chat room action was exemplary, and it took an experienced hand to be able to grab the 599.60 Hidden Pivot and run with it. The three traders mentioned showed excellent risk-management skills, especially the one who used a very tight stop-loss that necessitated excellent skill at executing.

 

For participants in the chat-room, the lesson to take away from all of this was that money management skills are paramount in seeing a long-term trading program through. But even without the Hidden Pivot swing points, the chat room will remain an excellent venue for precious metal traders and investors who want to keep a very close watch on things. Drop by sometime and say “hi!” The room is open to all subscribers, even those who sign up for just a month.

 

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Free Hidden Pivot Calculator

 

The Hidden Pivot seminar next month in New York City is sold out, but there are still a few seats left in the three others that are planned: Vancouver (October 28-29); San Francisco (November 11-12); and Sydney, Australia (December 2-3).  You can  request a registration form and further details by clicking here.  And, if you act now, there is still a chance to claim a free Hidden-Pivot calculator and one of our snazzy Rick’s Picks combed-cotton polo shirts in your choice of colors.





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