Add Pimco’s Steve Rodofsky to the list of institutional heavies who aren’t buying “Helicopter Ben” Bernanke’s rosy outlook for the economy. “We’re concerned about the lag effect of the tightening,” said Rodofsky, senior vice president of portfolio management in charge of U.S. Treasury trading at Pimco. “Our overwhelming concern – more than the introduction of the 30-year bond – is the outlook for the consumer in 2006 and 2007.”

The remarks were reported in Investment News, a weekly publication geared toward financial advisors. Not long before, Bernanke had told Congress that his main concern was inflation, not an economic slowdown. At the time, he projected 3.5% growth this year and next. He also said later that there would probably be two more rate hikes between now and May 10.

But Pimco believes Bernanke will soon recognize signs of an economic slowdown and change course. Accordingly, the firm has been buying short-term paper in anticipation of a possible easing rather than tightening by year-end. In the interest of helping the Fed chief see the gathering clouds, we proffer the chart below, from our friend Bob Bronson at Bronson Capital Market Research. It shows a housing boom that is clearly spent and starting to roll down. Our bet’s on Pimco.

(Click on graph to enlarge)