ARCHIVED COMMENTARY
Small Dip Could
Dim Gold Outlook
For edition of September 08, 2006
Several subscribers who dropped by the Rick’s Picks chat room yesterday morning were looking for a promising spot to buy gold, which earlier in the day had taken a pretty nasty hit. My advice was to wait until gold itself has signaled the all-clear, an event which has yet to occur but which has been anxiously anticipated by gold bugs ever since bullion prices began a major correction in mid-May. Unfortunately, even after diving $23 yesterday, December Gold looked more like a candidate for shorting than for bargain hunting. The futures barely bounced from their intraday lows near $621, and as the night session began they were timidly probing the upper limits of a $5 recovery range.
(Click on chartt to enlarge)
The good news, at least so far, is that there are no bearish price patterns on the daily chart (see above) nearly as powerful as the bullish one that culminated with a $691 peak in mid-July. This implies that the long-term bull is still dominant, even if docile for the time being. As I noted in the chat room, however, there is an immediate threat to the intermediate-term picture if the December contract were to fall just a little beneath yesterday’s bottom at $621. Specifically, a print below the $615 bottom made on July 24 would make any moderate rally thereafter a short sale, presumably for a plunge below $600. But for the bear to return forcefully, a decline exceeding 513.60 would be necessary. That would create a quite powerful bearish impulse leg by exceeding two internal lows ($615, recorded on July 25; and $587, recorded on June 14); and one external low ($513.70, from December 21, 2005. Bottom line: The long-term bull is not just intact but perfect healthy; however, the intermediate-term picture could change with just a little more weakness.
Meanwhile, I may have been too cautious bidding for some QQQQ October 39 puts yesterday. Stocks looked unimpressive for most of the day, and I declared myself a buyer of the puts in the chat room. At one point, there was just my 1.15 bid for a small quantity of QQQVMs, and 80,000 of them offered for 1.20. Alas, none came in for sale at my price, and I wasn't about to pay up for them, not even a nickel. Perhaps I’ll get another chance when stocks open this morning. Bears of a similar mind might be encouraged by yesterday’s opening in the shares of Citigroup., If you want to see sleaze operating at its most brazen (assuming the chart data are correct), take a look at this picture:
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Oz Seminar at Darling Harbour
Details concerning the upcoming Hidden Pivot seminar in Sydney are starting to firm. The event will be held in Darling Harbour on Dec 2-3 at the Novatel Hotel. This venue was recommended to us by several sources for its comfortable accommodations and close proximity to the city’s tourist attractions and night life. Although it’ll be several weeks before registration forms go out, it’s never too early to start planning for the event.
Concerning the New York City seminar, if you would like to reserve a seat, please let me know by requesting a registration form at this link. Those of you with registration forms already in hand should get them back to me as soon as possible, since everyone who is completely paid up by mid-September will receive a snazzy Rick’s Picks polo shirt and a $125 Hidden Pivot calculator free of charge. Below is a FAQ to speed your decision along.
FAQ
When will the Hidden Pivot Seminar be held?
There are four seminars scheduled over the next four months, all on weekends. The first will be in New York City on October 14-15; the second, in Vancouver on October 28-29; the third, in San Francisco on November 11-12; and the last, in Sydney on December 2-3.
The class takes two full days, then?
Yes, from 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday. After an on-site brunch the second day, the remaining hours will be devoted to an informal Q&A session.
Can I take the course online?
We do not offer an online seminar at this time, but this may change if demand warrants it.
Is the seminar open to those who do not subscribe to your Rick’s Picks advisory service?
The course is open to subscribers and non-subscribers alike. However, I encourage all seminar students to subscribe to Rick’s Picks, if only for a month or two, so that they can become familiar with my methods and trading style. Also, the archives and educational pages offer a useful resource for learning about my proprietary methods prior to the seminar.
How can I sign up for the seminar?
You can request a registration form by clicking on the blue hypertext line under “Last Call!” above.
How much does the seminar cost?
Tuition for the two-day event is $1,500, This covers course materials and extensive post-grad mentoring in a real-time chat-room held during market hours.
When is the money due?
A deposit of $300 is due with the registration form. $100 of it would be non-refundable, and the remaining $200 would become non-refundable six weeks prior to the session.
How about the remaining balance of $1,200?
It would be payable by two weeks prior to the session and would be refundable. A check is preferred, but you will be able to use a credit card for an additional administrative fee of $50.
What will I learn?
The goal of the course is to enable students to master the Hidden Pivot method and to use it to forecast price reversals at least as accurately as experts who do it for a living. In addition, you will learn to use some basic risk management strategies and to leverage swing points with puts and calls. If you’re interested in what my subscribers have said about hidden pivots, click here.
Can someone who knows little about trading or technical analysis benefit from the seminar?
Although many professionals have taken the course, it is an ideal place for the novice to start, since it offers a relatively simple, stand-alone method of forecasting and trading. No prior trading experience or knowledge is required.
